PMs in high political stakes

Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern will meet on 3 March

By Martina Purdy BBC NI political correspondent

David Trimble attempted to bring a bit of light relief to the intense proceedings at Hillsborough this week.

On his exit from talks with Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern, the Ulster Unionist leader referred to the jackpot race at Down Royal on Wednesday.

Tony Blair: "High stakes poker"

It involved a horse named Blair and another called Same Old Story. The outcome wasn't a good sign. The prime minister's namesake finished last, while Same Old Story came second.

A gambler's nerves wouldn't be settled either by Mr Blair's remarks after setting a 3 March deadline for resolution of Northern Ireland's political impasse.

"I am sure that we can find a way through. I am hopeful that we will," he told reporters.

'Examine Sinn Fein'

First "sure" and then "hopeful". Is the prime minister bluffing his way through high stakes poker on a hunch everything will work out? Or does he know something we don't? And would a shrewd gambler risk his chips?

Possibly not. But keen observers of the peace process might.

In weighing up the odds of a deal, one must consider how badly each of the main players want or need one.

Sinn Fein will be focusing on making sure its aim of dominating the assembly is achieved before the SDLP has time to regroup

First let's examine Sinn Fein and the IRA - by its nature a selfish movement. Wherever possible, it pretty much does what suits it, in its own time, in its own way and on its own terms.

So simply demanding that the IRA go away as an active, armed group and that Sinn Fein sign up to policing won't work.

The context must be created - and Tony Blair has held out the prospect of demilitarisation as a quid pro quo.

An attractive jackpot for republicans perhaps, but the policing issue still needs to be sorted out. That is certainly in Sinn Fein's interests.

Policing amendments

Signing up to policing may cause problems among some grassroots republicans, but it may also widen Sinn Fein's chances of eating further into the middle-class nationalist vote that is traditionally held by the SDLP.

Mark Durkan's party is wounded, but it is not mortally injured. Sinn Fein will be focusing on making sure its aim of dominating the assembly is achieved before the SDLP has time to regroup.

But first Sinn Fein has to convince the prime minister to grant at least some of their 26 policing amendments.

Gerry Adams: "Political project"

One barrier is that the government doesn't want to undermine the SDLP by moving significantly beyond what the party negotiated last year.

If policing can be cracked, it's bound to lead to a dramatic move by the IRA.

Logic suggests that Sinn Fein on the police boards means the IRA can't continue to exist to challenge the authority of the police.

And if one accepts that the IRA's armalite is weighing down the Sinn Fein ballot box - and its existence is at times undermining Gerry Adams's political project to achieve power in the Irish parliament - then it is surely in Sinn Fein's interest to achieve a deal and transform the IRA into a benign 'old soldier's organisation'.

It could be argued that the March timing of a deal also suits republican interests. A pre-election deal allows the party to trumpet itself as the peace builder, further blurring the edges between Sinn Fein and its main rival.

'Sufficiently sweet'

Can Sinn Fein afford to lose out to the SDLP in this election? And if it does, would that give the SDLP five years to fortify its dominant position until the next assembly poll?

That would depend on whether Sinn Fein regards the SDLP's recent decline as a permanent political trend.

What about the Ulster Unionist leadership? It needs a deal if the party is to tackle the DUP in an election on 1 May.

As for the two governments, their interest is clearly to end what Tony Blair called the inch-by-inch negotiations, and get on with the business of governing

Without it, some would argue the party has nothing to offer the electorate. The DUP is bound to argue the UUP experiment has failed. But in order for Mr Trimble to accept the deal, it has to be sufficiently sweet.

He is not going to sacrifice his party and his leadership for the process.

But a dramatic swift move by the IRA may, however, convince Mr Trimble to take a calculated gamble.

Shoring up pro-Agreement unionism may be another selfish interest of Sinn Fein.

'Acts of completion'

Some observers detect no real appetite to assist the DUP - which a minimalist offer from the IRA in the mouth of an election would almost certainly do.

As for the two governments, their interest is clearly to end what Tony Blair called the inch-by-inch negotiations, and get on with the business of governing.

Never mind the dreary steeples of Fermanagh, do they really want to keep coming back to Hillsborough Castle in perpetuity?

Of course, Mr Blair will have to convince his generals - and those Martin McGuinness calls the securocrats - about acts of completion.

But Mr Blair and Mr Ahern are conscious of their respective political legacies. Who wouldn't want to go down in history as the prime minister who cracked the nut?

The stakes are high. And the odds are still too long for the cautious punter.

But they may yet shorten as 3 March approaches.