Analysis: Aceh's fragile peace

The conflict has raged for 26 years

By Orlando de Guzman BBC correspondent in Aceh

In the Indonesian province of Aceh, there are hopes for an end to a decades-old separatist conflict.

This week, the Free Aceh movement, known as GAM, announced it has begun disarming.

A gradual process of demilitarising the breakaway province is underway.

A ceasefire has been in place for two months, but it is unclear how the fragile peace will hold together.

We believe that peace is always very fragile. It is going to take some time to create trust. We don't believe it will happen overnight

Tonongsuk Tuwinon,
Thai peace monitor

The village of Indrapura is the first of many so-called peace zones being set up in Aceh.

There are "safe havens" for civilians that are marked by blue signs when you enter and leave the town.

Rebels and Indonesian troops are not allowed to conduct offensives there.

This peace zone was established two weeks ago, and villagers here say it is the most peaceful it has been for as long as anyone can remember.

"The market here would always close before dark," said one local man.

"But now, everyone stays out until late at night. I never felt safe here before. But things have changed now," he said.

The rice paddies outside of Indrapura were once dangerous places.

Heavy fighting between the army and GAM was heard there almost daily.

'Too afraid'

Rosna Fahred, a farmer, says that although the fighting has stopped, the people are still very fearful and traumatised.

"My husband was working in these rice fields, and he heard gunfire. He then ran away, and the Indonesian soldiers ran after him, and they were shooting at him, but he survived," she said.

"But after that, he became very traumatized. It is like his soul left his body. He hasn't left the house in two years. He is unable to work. He is still too afraid to go outside."

She said that because her husband was so severely traumatised, she must now harvest the rice by herself.

There has been a significant drop in the number of civilian and military deaths since the ceasefire was signed two months ago.

But Human Hamid, a sociology professor in Aceh, says many people here are not sure if peace will finally take root.

"Peace means more than the declining of casualties. Peace for them, should be how to bring people to normal life, again. And after two months, there seems to be no sign that they are starting to get back to normal life," he said.

GAM and the Indonesian army have been fighting each other for the past 26 years.

It has been a bloody war. More than 10,000 people have died in the past decade, many of them civilians.

Patience 'running thin'

The past two months of the peace process has focused on building trust between the two sides, a task that is proving to be difficult.

"I am afraid this so-called confidence building stage hasn't really achieved anything in the past two months," said Sofian Tiba, a negotiator for the rebels.

"I am worried that the Indonesian army is not sincere, given their recent statements. We have no guarantee that the Indonesian army will not betray us," he said.

The Indonesian army says they are the ones being betrayed by GAM.

Since the ceasefire, the rebel force has been collecting revolutionary taxes from civilians, ostensibly to build up its forces.

Sidney Jones, an expert with the International Crisis Group, says patience is running thin amongst the army's top brass.

"The military is seeing all its worst fears realised, that if you give these guys half a chance, they will just consolidate control, and there is no point in negotiating with them if this is what they are going to do."

Ms Jones says the negotiations are in danger of reaching a stalemate.

There are significant disagreements.

There has been no agreement on any of the major points that are outlined in the 9 December agreement

Sidney Jones,
International Crisis Group

GAM, on the one hand, believes that independence for Aceh is the final goal of the peace talks.

That is not on the agenda as far as the Indonesian Government is concerned.

"We believe that peace is always very fragile," said Tonongsuk Tuwinon, a senior Thai envoy brought in to monitor the peace plan.

"It is going to take some time, in creating trust. We don't believe it will happen overnight. It is going to be difficult," he said.

With lingering mistrust, the peace process has entered perhaps its most crucial stage this week.

Gaps

Separatist rebels must begin disarming, and placing their weapons in secret locations known only to international monitors.

GAM says it will comply.

The Indonesian army in turn says it will go back to the barracks.

The problem though, Ms Jones said, is that the two sides have different interpretations of what they should do,

"I think that there has been no agreement on any of the major points that are outlined in the 9 December agreement," she said.

"If you look at everything from the issue of the placement of arms by GAM, to the political end game, the interpretations by the army and GAM are as far away as they can get. And it is not clear how those gaps will be bridged," she said.

There is another crucial gap in bringing lasting peace here.

The civilian government in Aceh has been virtually non-existent.

Decades of war have fuelled corruption on a massive scale.

Few basic services actually reach the civilian population.

The village of Glee Cot, in Pidie district, is one of the poorest areas of Aceh.

A bamboo shack covered in leaves and sacks is home for Halima Ali Muhammad.

"I don't know if peace will last. Even though it looks peaceful now, we are still very worried. I don't feel like my life has returned to normal. We are still worried because of everything that has happened in the past, " she said.

Halima says her husband was killed last year in police custody.

If the government cannot deliver anything during times of war, she asks, what can they possibly offer in times of peace?