Republicans await Blair response

Will McGuinness and Adams persuade the IRA?

BBC NI security editor Brian Rowan examines some of the signals coming from the behind-the-scenes negotiations that are going on in an effort to achieve a political breakthrough in Northern Ireland.

They are the men who have changed the IRA and, soon, they could be called upon to try to persuade it to take its biggest ever steps in the peace process.

Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness have been waiting to hear from Tony Blair - waiting for his response to a 57 page document which Sinn Fein gave the British Government just before Christmas.

It details, from a republican perspective, the "acts of completion" they expect of the British prime minister across a range of issues, including policing, demilitarisation, human rights and equality, and on-the-runs - republican suspects still wanted by the police.

A response on the main issues is expected soon and, based on that, Adams and McGuinness will decide whether they are in a position to go to the IRA.

Army watchtowers are a key issue

"We are not at the point yet where anyone could say this is the definitive package from the British Government," a senior Sinn Fein source told me.

"There is a hope - an expectation - that we could see all of that within the next week to ten days, but we wouldn't be surprised if we don't," he added.

On the government side, there is a view that Blair is prepared to be "radical" but only if the IRA does what is required of it.

Being radical will mean the most significant steps yet to scale down the British Army presence in Northern Ireland.

There is a willingness to demolish and remove the controversial watchtowers in border areas including south Armagh and, according to one security source, that could all happen very quickly:

"The government wants to get it sorted before they go war," he told me, in a reference to the anticipated conflict in Iraq.

'Withdrawal'

However, another source said the time imperative was to do with the scheduled May election in Northern Ireland and nothing to do with war concerns.

Another source believes republicans will attempt to sell the demilitarisation moves as "a British withdrawal", but "it isn't that," he told me.

However it is sold, republicans now accept that important security moves - the most significant moves yet - are being planned, but they have a concern that there is not the same focus on other crucial issues:

"There is almost a sense that if the Brits do something big on demilitarisation, that could clinch it," one source told me.

But he added: "Policing has to be the big issue on the radar screen."

The two critical matters that Sinn Fein would identify at this time would be the future of police Special Branch and the issue of authority within policing and finding the right balance between the Policing Board, the chief constable and the secretary of state.

The devolution of policing and criminal justice into the Northern Ireland Executive has now become a more important issue in the background talks involving the the British and Irish Governments and the other key political players.

Security assessment

This week the nationalist SDLP tabled its proposals for the closure of police and army bases and for quicker movement towards a routinely unarmed police service.

It has also asked Chief Constable Hugh Orde to make a fresh security assessment to facilitate their proposals and also to enable further moves on demilitarisation.

But any assessment that Orde makes will depend on what the IRA is prepared to offer as a result of the continuing negotiations and, at this time, that is still not clear.

Chief Constable Hugh Orde

Sources say Adams and McGuinness were told in Downing Street before Christmas that IRA activity has to end.

"How that is done, is a matter for the IRA," the source told me.

Republican sources have made clear that the IRA considers demands for disbandment, or a standing down of the organisation, to fall within what has been described as the "unrealisable and unrealistic ultimatum", but that is not to say that further IRA moves are not possible.

There has been speculation that it could expand on its "complete cessation of military operations" to include other activities such as intelligence gathering, that it could make its most significant move yet on decommissioning and that Sinn Fein could move to endorse the new policing arrangements.

Orde has made clear on numerous occasions that he wants to see Sinn Fein on the new Policing Board.

Internal problems

And there is even some political gossip now that the chief constable and Gerry Adams could have a "chance encounter" in Washington during the St Patrick's Day celebrations there.

That may or may not happen but whenever Sinn Fein signs up for policing that is going to cause internal problems for Orde.

"Most officers will know colleagues who have suffered at the hands of the IRA in the past," one police source told me.

"Now those officers will have to form working relationships with Sinn Fein both on the Policing Board and the District Partnerships. That's not going to be easy," he added.

That is assuming that Sinn Fein is about to take the policing plunge but, at this stage, that is far from guaranteed.

Adams and McGuinness will want to see the fine detail of any British offer before they go to the IRA and then there is the issue of can republicans deliver enough to make the unionists want to play?

In the background, the game is still on - a game which is rapidly reaching its most crucial and interesting phase and there is little room for extra time.

The key players still believe a deal is possible, but by no means certain.