US public opinion

With President Bush apparently all set to attack Iraq, what are the feelings of the people in whose name he acts?

To gauge the mood of the American public, Peter Marshall has been in the US Midwest, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

PETER MARSHALL:
On the rink, even when you're 12, conflict is part of the game. You've got to be tough. Outside, for the ice hockey parents of Pittsburgh, real life is throwing up a more serious challenge: Saddam. It's a hard issue, not to be ducked.

STEVE WEY:
If we can get him to get out peacefully that would be good. If that doesn't work then I think we should use any means necessary to remove him from power.

UNNAMED MAN 1:
The focus should be on our country. Not going over there and getting into war. The Desert Storm was a walk in the park, this is not going to be a walk in the park, we're gonna kill a lot of our young people.

KATHY HOUSTON:
I think that the United States is taking a lead and saying that he's not doing a good job and that he should be removed from power.

MARSHALL:
A poll out today shows that more Americans than ever, 68%, favour the use of force to remove Saddam. But only one in four, 26%, would back America acting alone. And only 28% say they'd support war if there's no clear proof of an Iraqi weapons programme.

These days Pittsburgh is a hub for transport and corporate HQs. It's where global empires base themselves. The people here think hard about the role of their nation, the superpower. The polls show that most Americans are far more thoughtful and sensitive about the arguments for or against war with Iraq, than the popular overseas caricature of the glib or gung-ho American might suggest.

Here in Pittsburgh we've heard a range of views from inquiring internationalists, too committed campaigners for peace. They speak of the problems posed by Saddam, and the role they see being played by Britain and Tony Blair on whether there's to be a war at all. At a downtown club, independent types who take an interest in global affairs, are lunching and listening to a man they hope is in the know, the former ambassador to Jordan. He thinks Saddam only has to delay until the summer and he'll be off the hook.

ROGER HARRISON:
(US Ambassador to Jordan 1990-93)
If he can prevent military action for six months, he may think that if I were his staffer, I would be telling him that he can avoid it. Because, we cannot stay in a crouch for six months, we can't keep carriers deployed for six months.

MARSHALL:
Later, we met a group of diners to get their thoughts on a looming war.

BECKY WRIGHT:
I have a son who's a Lieutenant in the Marine Corps, the United States Marine Corps, he's deployed now. He is a tank commander, and now floating off towards all the bad regions. As a mom I can tell you that I'm scared to death, I think I would prefer that they don't, but I understand and will understand if they must.

CLIFF SHANNON:
I have no doubt, no doubt in my mind at least, that unchecked, the man who controls Iraq now, will at some point if not already acquire weapons of mass destruction and will collaborate with whoever he needs to collaborate with, in order to use those weapons to dominate, to conquer, to terrorise, to achieve aims that are not just contrary to US foreign policy interests, but literally put my children in danger.

APRIL ESHELMAN:
We want our children to be safe, then I think we need to turn our policy towards resolving the Palestinian issue, instead of thinking about bombing the Iraqi's, solve the Palestinian issue. If were worried about terrorists coming over, if we solve the Palestinian issue were much less to have another 9/11 happen here.

TERRENCE KELLY:
Well, Osama Bin Laden and his crew didn't give a hoot about the Palestinian issue until after September 11th, those things are totally disjoined. Osama Bin Laden and his followers are theologically opposed to the American way of life and everything that we stand for.

MARSHALL:
How significant, how influential, is the position of Tony Blair and the UK in all this, in making up President Bush's mind do you think?

JOSEPH WILSON:
In making that decision?

MARSHALL:
Yes.

WILSON:
I don't think the US will make it unilaterally.

MARSHALL:
So they need some cover from Britain?

WILSON:
Absolutely.

MARSHALL:
Really?

WILSON:
Absolutely. And maybe Tony Blair's providing the same role for George Bush Junior as Maggie Thatcher provided for his father.

MARSHALL:
What do you think John?

JOHN RYAN:
Yeah, he's a wise adviser, and you want to look for the advice of somebody who's not power politically dependent on you.

MARSHALL:
So without Blair, there won't be a war you think?

RYAN:
I think if Blair opposed a war, I think it would make Bush really think hard.

MARSHALL:
What about without UN support then, not just Britain but the UN Security Council?

SHANNON:
I think that if the requirement is that we find the smoking gun, and the UN is only going to be persuaded if a smoking gun is found, and we are convinced, the United States is convinced, that the smoking gun exists, we just haven't been able to bring it to light, and it poses a direct and credible threat to the United States and its' people, you must act. I believe that.

CHANTING GRANNIES:
We're raising our voice.
We want a new choice.
No more war.

MARSHALL:
Side by side, a grannies' protest. The threat of war with Iraq has engendered some unlikely opposition. Among a group in the Pittsburgh suburbs there's Jack, a proud Vietnam veteran and Bush voter who says now he's had enough.

JACK SHEEHAN:
Since 9/11 which affected me deeply, it¿ the actions of the Government, seem to me to be such that it looks that they require some adult supervision. They just keep playing on fear, and we're not getting to the bottom of the issues. Leadership is more than the exercise of power, it's trying to get the best out of your population, the potential that you have in the country.

JOSEPH STRAYHORN:
There may be times when war is just , I believe those circumstances are rare, and I certainly don't think that this is one of them.

MARSHALL:
What's wrong with the circumstances now?

STRAYHORN:
Well for one thing, it would be a pre-emptive strike. It would be a strike against a country who has not attacked us first. Do we want that precedent to exist throughout the world? Do we want every country to act on the principal that if you fear some other country is going to strike you, you better get them first? I don't think so.

LEONORA CAYARD:
I'm afraid, if we attack Iraq, that will give Saddam Hussein, the licence to use his weapons of mass destruction if he has any. He might never use them otherwise, and we will just be the cause of this devastation.

MARSHALL:
The latest poll shows a paradox - while the numbers who'd support military action are going up, the numbers who feel the President has made a good case are going down. Therein lies a tale.

ANDREW KOHUT:
(Pew Centre for the People & the Press)
President Bush has great credibility with the public, and he's going to have to use it if the evidence is somewhat ambiguous or is soft or not really hard. And he could end up really having to do a sales job that might be very tough to get the public to go along.

MARSHALL:
How important is the role of American public opinion, how important will that be in the President's decision?

WILSON:
I think it will be important. I think that we have a President who makes his decisions to a large extent by poll.

MARSHALL:
So you think that you can still sway him?

WILSON:
If he doesn't sway us first

ESHELMAN:
That's a good point Jo.

KELLY:
I don't think the President will make this based on public opinion.

MARSHALL:
Becky?

WRIGHT:
I believe he already has decided what he's going to do. I truly do, when I see him speaking, when I hear those words coming from his mouth, I also agree with you that he absolutely does¿ I think he likes to hear what the opinion of people say, so that they'll vote for him. I mean he's a politician! But I think he knows already.

MARSHALL:
Most Americans, in Pittsburgh and elsewhere, share that view, that George Bush has already decided to go to war. Most will support him, but they'll do so with heavy hearts. This is not a military adventure the American people are treating lightly.

This transcript was produced from the teletext subtitles that are generated live for Newsnight. It has been checked against the programme as broadcast, however Newsnight can accept no responsibility for any factual inaccuracies. We will be happy to correct serious errors.