Straw and Hoon slug it out

Hoon has dismissed Straw's comments as unhelpful

By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

Jack Straw is not normally a gaffe prone or careless minister.

But his decision to switch odds on a war against Iraq from 60-40 for, to 40-60 against has caused the government serious problems.

Straw is a dove

It has seen him apparently at odds not just with Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon, - probably no surprise there - but with the prime minister himself.

The defence secretary's comments that such declarations were not helpful was the most pointed criticism.

And Downing Street has also refused on numerous occasions to back Mr Straw's odds, preferring only to say it was a "racing certainty" that Saddam would be disarmed of his weapons of mass destruction.

Cabinet split

The whole affair has left the government looking, at best confused and, at worse, deeply split over military action against Iraq.

Tony Blair seems as committed to a war as ever and has done nothing to lower expectations that conflict is, probably, inevitable.

Weapon inspections are under way in Iraq

Mr Hoon also seems ready for war and, in any case, is tasked with the job of getting British forces ready for possible action.

And it's a pretty hard for a defence secretary ever to be seen as a dove when it comes to action.

It is also an open secret that Mr Hoon fancies Mr Straw's job and there is a degree of personal animosity between them.

More kudos

But it is also common knowledge in Westminster that others in the cabinet are far from convinced that a war against Saddam would be desirable.

The foreign secretary has himself been painted as one of the doves in the cabinet who may have severe reservations about the consequences of a war in the region.

And it probably gives him more kudos on the diplomatic stage to be seen as less than enthusiastic about war.

The upshot of all this, however, is that the government which prides itself on its presentational and spin skills has got its message horribly confused over a hugely important and sensitive issue.

Most people would caution against offering odds on warfare and - by implication, loss of life - at any time.

It is not only foolhardy but might also be seen by some as highly insensitive.

Others, while attempting to divine exactly what Mr Straw was up to, will believe this was a case of the government trying to have it both ways - different messages aimed at different audiences.

But, whatever the motive, it has pretty dramatically backfired and handed the government's critics, particularly those on its own benches, more ammunition.