Analysis: Ivory Coast's fresh hopes

De Villepin described the situation as "tragic"

By Paul Welsh BBC West Africa correspondent in Abidjan

Dominique de Villepin went home to France with a smile on his face.

The French foreign minister had achieved a great deal in less than 48 hours.

Gbagbo has promised to stick to the ceasefire

The ceasefire between the Ivory Coast Government and the main rebel force has been rescued and both sides have agreed to take part in new peace talks in Paris.

Mr de Villepin believes there is a new political understanding here, a new beginning.

"I think everybody now understands how tragic the situation is, how dangerous," he told me on the steps of the presidency building here as he prepared to leave.

"A new political impulse is needed. I think the Paris meeting is going to be the occasion to have everybody around the table.

"We must face the situation and we know that if we don't succeed there is going to be a catastrophe here in Ivory Coast."

Last-gasp visit

The Ivory Coast Government and the main rebel group, the Ivory Coast Patriotic Movement (MPCI), have both agreed to go to the new talks in Paris.

Ivory Coast's President, Laurent Gbagbo, has promised to stick to the ceasefire, to ground helicopter gunships and to send home foreign mercenaries.

The rebels in turn agreed not to retaliate for a helicopter gunship attack on New Year's eve which killed 12 civilians.

They also accepted the presence of French troops. Previously they had demanded that the troops leave, accusing them of siding with the Ivory Coast Government.

Mr de Villepin's two-day trip had been hastily arranged because of the gunship attack and the rebel reaction.

When he arrived here the ceasefire looked like it was on its last legs.

As the foreign minister left the two sides were making positive noises.

Doubts

"We've made great progress, very quickly," said President Laurent Gbagbo. "If everyone does what he should [in Paris], by the end of the month we should have something positive."

They [the French] insist that rather than neo-colonialism the new gatherings will be a part of an African solution to an African problem

The MPCI spokesman Antoine Beugre said: "We are very pleased, very comforted by the meeting with Mr de Villepin".

But the distrust between the two main enemies in this conflict is still there.

The foreign minister was barely on his flight back to Paris when each started to voice doubts about the other.

The president's spokesman Toussaint Alain said: "We can be allowed serious doubts about the sincerity of the MPCI."

Antoine Beugre said: "We have never trusted Gbagbo in the past, we're holding the French to their promise to make him stick by his promises".

Peace plan

The new talks in Paris will be in two stages.

The first stage will be from 15 to 23 January, with the Ivory Coast Government, opposition parties and all rebel groups invited.

France is trying to enforce the ceasefire

Then from 26 January talks will be held involving African heads of state and international bodies such as the United Nations and the organisation of West African states, Ecowas.

Existing peace talks being run by Ecowas in the nearby country of Togo have made little progress since they began at the end of October.

The negotiations have almost broken down on numerous occasions and have not yet resumed this year.

No date has been set for a return to Togo. Officially Ecowas is studying a 10-point peace plan put forward by President Gbagbo.

New rebel forces

The French say the Paris talks will not replace those which have already begun - they will run alongside each other.

They insist that rather than neo-colonialism the new gatherings will be a part of an African solution to an African problem.

The MPCI has promised to pass on the foreign minister's invitation to other rebels in the west of the country.

Two new rebel forces appeared in the west at the end of November, under the names MJP, or Movement for Justice and Peace, and MPIGO, or Popular Ivorian Movement for the Far West.

They have now merged and are calling themselves the MJP.

These newer rebels have no ceasefire with the government and it will be another breakthrough for Mr de Villepin if they can be persuaded to the negotiating table in Paris.

French troops

The new rebels in the west hold a chunk of territory along the border with Liberia and out to the major city of Man.

The Ecowas peacekeeping force will be 1,200-strong

Ivory Coast Government forces have failed to stop them and it is only the French who are halting their advance.

The French say they are blocking the new rebels at Duekoue to protect the 20,000 French citizens, and other foreigners, in the Ivory Coast.

There are around 2,400 French troops in Ivory Coast now, reinforced from their usual presence of 700 or so.

Their mission in their former colony is being run from their permanent barracks on the edge of the main city of Abidjan, led by a general brought in for the purpose.

They first deployed just after the conflict here began on 19 September to look after their own.

Now they are also enforcing the ceasefire between the main rebels and the government.

Truce breaches

Both the MPCI and the Ivory Coast army accuse each other of numerous breaches of the truce since it was signed on 17 October last year.

The French have only confirmed two, both by the government.

The newer rebel forces have signed no ceasefire and they are trying to push forward.

They say an attack in the southwest of the country on New Year's Day, in an area previously untouched by the war, was their work.

The government says the fighting, 200 km (125 miles) from the second major port San Pedro, is actually just looters who have crossed over from Liberia.

Peacekeeping forces

A West African peacekeeping force is supposed to be taking over the role of ceasefire monitoring, but they are slow in arriving.

The Ecowas force was first due in October.

Forty-nine arrived on 3 January, with the rest promised later; ultimately they should be 1,200-strong.

There are already question marks though. Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade has told the BBC he will only send his troops - the bulk of the force - when a peace deal is signed.

The executive secretary of Ecowas, Mohammed Ibn Chambas, says he is confident the problems can be overcome and that the force will deploy.

When it does come the French are likely to remain in many of their positions, officially to "protect their own citizens".

More than 1,000 people are thought to have died since the war broke out four months ago, but very little territory has changed hands permanently since the first day of fighting ended.

The main rebel force still holds more than half of this country.

As he ended his highly successful, whirlwind visit, Dominique de Villepin told me Ivory Coast "now has a chance".