Saddam opponents seek united front

The Iraqi opposition has suffered from infighting

By Pam O'Toole BBC Middle East analyst

Delegates are meeting in London for what is being billed as the broadest-based conference of the Iraqi opposition in a decade.

More than 300 people, including independents and representatives from more than 50 parties, are seeking to to map out their vision of a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq.

These Iraqi opposition groups will only matter if the US decides they should matter

Unnamed Iraqi

The opposition has been under increasing pressure from Washington to unite ahead of a possible military strike against the Iraqi President.

The organisers are hoping the London conference will help transform the Iraqi opposition's image from a fractured - and often fractious - loose coalition of parties to a united and credible opposition front which could help to fill any power vacuum in Iraq.

Differences

It is an ambitious aim. The multitude of Iraqi opposition groups reflects ethnic and religious divisions within Iraq itself.

Former Kurdish rivals are attending the conference

These groups are driven further by personal rivalries and ideological differences.

They are scattered across different countries; they have different patrons, loyalties and agendas.

Nevertheless, the main parties have recognised that if they do not learn to work together now, they could miss their chance of playing a meaningful role in a future Iraqi Government.

Leading the way in demonstrating how the opposition can unite are Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani, both of whom are attending the London conference.

The two men are leaders of the main Iraqi Kurdish parties which have ruled parts of northern Iraq for the past decade, protected by a Western air umbrella.

Although they fought in the 1990s, they have recently patched up their differences, reconvening their joint regional parliament.

US support

Over the years, the Kurds - and a number of other prominent leaders attending the conference, including Ahmed Chalabi, head of the opposition umbrella group, the Iraqi National Congress (INC) - have enjoyed support from various arms of the US administration.

Some groups are suspicious of the United States

Others have their own regional supporters or patrons; the main Shia opposition group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Sciri), is based in Iran.

Sciri is also sending a representative to London, but some other Iraqi opposition groups are boycotting the meeting, alleging that it serves "an American agenda".

The American government is keeping a low profile, saying the conference is a "purely Iraqi" affair.

However, its interest is clear. The fact that the meeting is being held at all is widely attributed to continuing American pressure on the fractious opposition.

And the fact that President Bush has sent his new envoy for "free Iraqis", Zalmay Khalilzad, to London as an observer shows the continuing importance which Washington attaches to it.

Quarrels

Only a day before the conference started, the opposition was continuing to live up to its reputation for divisiveness, with last minute bickering over exactly who should attend.

Some of the organisers have put this down to "healthy democratic debate".

The groups are seeking a role in a post-Saddam Iraq

They point out that the opposition remains united on the main issues - their desire to see Saddam Hussein overthrown and a democratic government established.

The most contentious issues appear to have been put on the backburner in the interests of presenting a united front at this conference.

The modest agenda includes developing a vision for the future of Iraq and a declaration of democratic principles.

But the meeting is also expected to select a co-ordinating committee to oversee future opposition activities and act as a formal contact point with the outside world.

And, according to one delegates, "that's when the real infighting will start."

Regime change

The organisers of the conference - and their American supporters - are hoping it will come up with some show of solidarity.

At the very least, say more sceptical Iraqis, the United States will expect the opposition to rubber stamp its policy of regime change in Iraq.

But one added: "The bottom line will be decided by Uncle Sam. These Iraqi opposition groups will only matter if the US decides they should matter."

So far the Americans have kept their cards close to their chest.

Distrust

And what do the Iraqi people think about this conference?

According to Sharif Ali bin al Hussein, one of the leaders of the INC, "experience has shown that the Iraqi people look to the opposition to provide leadership and direction."

But others are not so sure. A recent survey conducted by the International Crisis Group (ICG) in three Iraqi cities found that most Iraqis had "a complete lack of trust in the exiled opposition".

According to Rob Malley, director of the ICG's Middle East Programme, "there seemed to be wide consensus that these were not the people who Iraqis wanted to see come back and rule their lives".