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Wednesday, 11 December, 2002, 17:40 GMT
The BJP's stake in Gujarat
Gujarat CM Modi
Chief Minister Modi has been the target of criticism

Winning the legislative assembly elections in western Gujarat state is crucial for India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which leads the coalition government in Delhi.

The BJP has been in power in the state for most of the last 10 years.

And it is under pressure to retain power in Gujarat because there are only two other Indian states which it still holds.

In assembly elections held earlier this year in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur and Jammu and Kashmir, the party fared badly.

It is facing an uphill task in Himachal Pradesh, which goes to the polls in February next year.

Personal prestige

Retaining Gujarat is also a matter of honour for the party since some of its most senior leaders represent the state in central politics.

RSS traiing camp in Gujarat
Gujarat is seen as a testing ground for Hindu ideologues
These include the hawkish Deputy Prime Minister, LK Advani, who is a member of parliament from the state capital, Gandhinagar, former Law Minister Arun Jaitly, who is a member of the upper house from the state, Textiles Minister Kanshiram Rana and Minister of State for Defence Hiren Pathak.

With the state witnessing total political and religious polarisation, the BJP and its ideological affiliates are pitted against a strong secular front under the Congress.

The Left is supporting the Congress, and the Lok Janshakti Party has announced that it will refrain from contesting the election so that the secular vote is not divided.

Other political parties like the Samajwadi Party or the Nationalist Congress Party - which are reportedly going it alone - do not have much political clout in the state.

Gujarat has also been a testing ground for the BJP.

Mr Advani's campaign in 1990 for construction of a HIndu temple at Ayodhya in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh started from Somnath in Gujarat.

The Hindu nationalist movement's confrontation with the Christian minority also started in Gujarat in 1998 before it went on to spread to other states.

Troublesome coalition

Apart from its ideological attachment to Gujarat, the BJP also has to take into account coalition politics in Delhi.

Following the Hindu-Muslim clashes which swept the state earlier this year, Chandrababu Naidu, the leader of the Telugu Desam Party, a key partner in the ruling national alliance, expressed his reservations about Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi continuing in office.

But the BJP ignored such concerns, and Mr Modi stayed put.

Another coalition partner, the DMK, is also estranged from the BJP - but for different reasons.

The party is a major regional player in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, and is reportedly unhappy with the growing closeness between its rival in the state, the AIADMK, and the BJP.

Another of the BJP allies at the centre, the Samata Party, has refused to join forces with the BJP for the Gujarat elections.

Its president, George Fernandes, is the defence minister in the union government and the convenor of the National Democratic Alliance.

The party regards itself as secular and does not want to be associated with the BJP's agressively Hindu nationalist platform in the Gujarat polls.

A clear victory in the Gujarat elections will enable the BJP to assert itself in the coalition with renewed confidence.

A less than resounding victory could seriously weaken the BJP's standing in the alliance at a time when its electoral fortunes have already taken a dip.

Gujarat conflict in-depth

Key vote

Tense state

Background

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TALKING POINT
See also:

08 Nov 02 | South Asia
28 Oct 02 | South Asia
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