Has Brown's luck run out?

Chancellor Gordon Brown has a reputation to maintain

By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

Has luck finally run out for Britain's "golden" Chancellor?

Even Gordon Brown might have to admit that his famous economic prudence has been accompanied by a slice of good fortune.

	:	At-a-glance
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Massive incomes from things like the mobile phone licence sell off and the housing and stock market booms all helped his prudence pay off.

As a result he has slashed borrowing and increased spending.

Brown still has eye on Blair's job

But even against that background he was still forced to introduce a significant hike in tax on income to fund his ambitious programme.

None the less, his successes have combined to allow Mr Brown to paint himself as one of the most successful post-war Chancellors and the natural successor to Tony Blair.

Rehearsing excuses

Well, things are looking far less optimistic now - on both fronts.

As he prepares to make his pre-budget statement, the Chancellor is looking at a drastically different economic forecasts. And he has already started rehearsing his excuses.

Thanks, he will argue, to the global slowdown, he will be forced to revise his growth forecasts - always branded optimistic by the opponents.

Income from taxation is down and he is facing a significant shortfall in the public finances.

The question is how this might affect the government's public spending programme, particularly in the couple of years before the next election, and what effect that will have on Mr Brown's personal standing.

Brown: Talking tough

Thanks to his previous prudence, "golden Gordon" will probably be able to announce that he can plug any hole with extra borrowing.

He can then hope that the economic cycle will turn in his favour before the next election.

No taxes

What he will most certainly not want to do is increase taxation - although there are persistent rumours that a series of "rubbish taxes" on things like household waste may be signalled.

However the more gloomy economic forecasters believe that tax rises could yet be unavoidable.

Meanwhile, the Chancellor is talking exceedingly tough over public sector pay.

He really means it when he says the public sector spending envelope is closed and sealed.

He knows that, if he is not to find himself in a disastrous tax rising situation in the run up to the next election, he must act now.

Scrooge at Christmas

This all points towards a gloomy pre-budget statement. Although you can bet it will be dressed up as another pre-Christmas present with talk about Britain being far better placed than anyone else to weather the global squalls.

A lot rides on this for Gordon Brown. He is desperate to hang onto his prudent reputation and, therefore, his image as the man most likely to succeed Tony Blair.

At the moment, he has time on his side. But he will also undoubtedly be hoping for a bit of good luck.