William Cohen

Iraq is willing to tell all about its weapons programme. At least, that's what Iraqi officials told the UN.

If they're telling the truth - an enormous 'if' - it proves the truth of Dr Johnson's adage that nothing concentrates the mind like the prospect of hanging in a fortnight.

But are America and Britain really readying themselves for war?

Jeremy Paxman spoke to the man who was US Defence Secretary when the UN weapons inspectors left Iraq in 1998.

On that occasion the West's military response was Operation Desert Fox. Jeremy began by asking him if we are more or less likely to see a war now?

WILLIAM COHEN:
(US Defence Secretary 1997-2001)
It's hard to predict until we see whether Saddam will fully comply. The continued firing upon US and British aircraft in the no-fly zones does not bode well for Saddam fully complying. There is an issue as to whether this is a breach of his agreement to comply with the resolution. But a continuation of that activity is going to put a negative connotation on this entire event.

JEREMY PAXMAN:
Would military action require another UN resolution?

WILLIAM COHEN:
It's up to the President of the US, he's agreed to consult with the UN. He did not say he would agree to get its consent. It's a matter of interpretation and would turn principally on the degree of the breach on the part of Saddam Hussein.

JEREMY PAXMAN:
How important is it that the force assembled, if there is military action, is broader than just the US and perhaps some British contribution?

WILLIAM COHEN:
It's important that the world understand this is not simply the US taking action but the US with its partners enforcing the resolutions. It would be important to have a multi-national approach to this. Obviously, it will be the US and our British friends who carry the heavy load, as far as the military operation is concerned, but, to the extent that other countries can contribute in ways that would make military sense, it would be very important.

JEREMY PAXMAN:
What sort of contribution would you hope for?

WILLIAM COHEN:
There might be special forces that could be contributed. Some assistance as far as support for the forces that are going in. It would depend on what their military contributions can be. We would look at precision-guided munitions and the US and British forces would be the two countries principally involved, but there may be other military operations that other countries could contribute. The most important thing would be the symbolic value of having other countries participate in any way.

JEREMY PAXMAN:
In contrast to the last big war in that part of the world, the Pentagon appears to have been told it will have to make do with many fewer troops. Will this be a different kind of war, if it comes to war?

WILLIAM COHEN:
It will be, if it comes to that. Saddam Hussein won't contest the US or the allied forces that are joining in that operation in any desert warfare campaign. It's clear he will seek to draw the US and others into the urban areas and urban campaigns. So I think the number of troops need not match that of Desert Storm. But we would have some 250,000 forces - sufficient to carry out any operation we decide to execute.

JEREMY PAXMAN:
Your judgement is it would take 250,000? We should always have more rather than less. As a military strategist, I'd say, "Give me as many as we can have. If we need less, so much the better." But to go in with fewer forces and then have to rally other forces to come in is not the appropriate approach. Come big, come strong, if you can do it with less when you have the forces in hand, all the better.

JEREMY PAXMAN:
But when you characterise what any war might be like in Iraq, the sort of fighting you're talking about, perhaps street by street or house by house, is the sort of fight that is not susceptible to so-called smart bombs - it is very labour intensive.

WILLIAM COHEN:
It is very labour intensive and that's one of the reasons why we should have the maximum amount of force available consistent with that type of campaign. That is exactly what President Bush has in mind in terms of the war campaign, should it come to that - but to have maximum flexibility, that means more man power in the streets, should it be an urban campaign. But we need to take into account that it would be initiated with precision-guided munitions, with aircraft taking out command control communication facilities, also taking out any surface-to-air missiles that might be fired upon the allied aircraft. It'll take a mix of forces but the numbers should be sufficiently large to carry out any type of campaign that we decide to wage.

JEREMY PAXMAN:
In that case, if it came to that intense urban sort of conflict, isn't there a danger Saddam Hussein may feel he has nothing to lose by using weapons of mass destruction?

WILLIAM COHEN:
That is always the issue with Saddam Hussein. It's clear from his past behaviour - when he set the oil wells on fire seeking to destroy them - that he is capable trying to inflict as much environmental or human damage as possible. Obviously, that's something all of us have to take into account, should it come to exercising any war option. That would be to take out those munitions in those facilities that would harbour them and that could be used in a pre-emptive fashion. It is a risk we have to look at with a cold, hard eye as we examine the options available to Mr Bush and the allied forces.

JEREMY PAXMAN:
If you compare this with the last Gulf War, is it a riskier operation than that one was? WILLIAM COHEN It will be different. It will be hard to categorise it as more or less risky. We are dealing with someone who has demonstrated a capacity to inflict as much harm as he can upon his own citizens, and those in Iran. We have to be wary of what he's capable of, and take effective measures to negate those and to neutralise them.

JEREMY PAXMAN:
Thank you very much for joining us.

WILLIAM COHEN:
My pleasure.

This transcript was produced from the teletext subtitles that are generated live for Newsnight. It has been checked against the programme as broadcast, however Newsnight can accept no responsibility for any factual inaccuracies. We will be happy to correct serious errors.