Blooming effect

Rob gets amongst some of the more unusual plants

We all know global warming could melt polar ice-caps and flood low-lying countries.

But have you thought about the impact it will have on your local garden centre?

A report by the National Trust and the Royal Horticultural Society says big changes lie ahead.

Garden centres are adapting

The traditional English country garden could be under threat and lawn maintenance could prove too difficult and expensive.

Long term

They're talking long term here - over the next 50 to 80 years - but the changes are already under way and gardens and gardens centres will have to adapt.

Public gardens might find they were developed in climatic conditions which no longer exist, and face major redesigns.

The main effects in the UK of global warming are likely to be:

Reduced frosts

Earlier springs

Higher temperatures all year round

Increased winter rainfall

Hotter, drier summers which could increase the risk of droughts.

"We are already seeing the effects of extreme and unexpected weather on our wildlife, historic buildings, rivers and lakes, coast and gardens," says National Trust director general Fiona Reynolds.

"We are working with others to evaluate these impacts and respond in the most positive way."

Bressingham

Blooms of Bressingham has been in the gardening business for more than 50 years.

It has a huge garden centre outside Diss in Norfolk and draws 80,000 visitors a year to its gardens and other attractions, including a Dad's Army museum.

Adrian has already seen changes

Adrian Bloom, who has created a garden for all seasons called Foggy Bottom, says he has already seen changes.

He now has a Tasmanian tree fern called dixonia which would not have thrived in the UK's climate 20 years ago.

"Over the past ten years we've had six years of above average rainfall with three of the last ten at record levels," says Adrian. "We've really noticed the difference."

Responsing

Garden centres have also been responding to recent changes.

Blooms have introduced an Italian range, partly inspired by the public's growing interest in Mediterranean style gardens.

Martin: has introduced an Italian range

Olive trees have become one of their best sellers.

"It's an added interest for people in their garden," says Martin Cotterill the general manager of Blooms.

"A lot of people do go abroad now for their holidays and it's exciting".

Challenge

Of course, it's in any garden centre's interest to rise to the challenge.

The gardening industry is worth £3.5bn a year, an increase of 27% on the 1996 figure.

But there's been a big shift towards outdoor living - people using gardens to relax in rather than getting on their hands and knees with a trowel.

So while sales of compost have risen by 16%, decking, conservatories and garden furniture are up by 45%.

That's just the type of environment for some exotic ornamental species.

John: "Everything gets so wet"

Keen gardener John Harris has got a lemon tree in his conservatory and is adapting his new garden to suit the climate.

"You've got to look at bog plants because everything gets so wet everywhere and plants that love the dry soil don't stand so much of a chance nowadays," he explains.

Opportunities

Dr Andrew Colquhoun, director general of the Royal Horticultural Society, says:

"Gardeners are adept at coping with the weather and the likely climate change over the next 80 years will present exciting opportunities as well as challenges.

"While there will be greater opportunities to grow exotic fruits and sub-tropical plants, increased winter rainfall will present difficulties for Mediterranean species which dislike water logging."

But while you're shopping at a centre like Blooms - and perhaps taking in the Dad's Army display - remember that these changes are 50 years away.

So, as Corporal Jones would say, don't panic.