Leaking plans for a rolling war

By Paul Reynolds BBC News Online world affairs correspondent

The Pentagon has drawn up plans for an invasion of Iraq which are based on a concept of "rolling war".

The idea would be to seize three areas of Iraq - the south, the north and the west - and use them as staging points to threaten Baghdad in the hope that this would precipitate an internal collapse of the Iraqi regime.

In this way Washington would avoid a major assault on the capital.

The battle plan was extensively leaked and discussed by both the New York Times and the Washington Post on Sunday. The accounts are similar.

Psychological campaign

It would be a very different operation from the Gulf War to remove Iraq from Kuwait in 1991.

Elements of the lessons learned in Afghanistan, where the US forces set up a base in Kandahar outside the capital Kabul, would be used.

However, enough armoured forces would be on hand to launch a ground attack on Baghdad if necessary. About 250,000 American and 15,000 British troops would be deployed.

Saddam Hussein is hearing all the things he doesn't want to hear

Charles Heyman, Jane's editor

Click here for UK war preparations

Major Charles Heyman, a former British army officer who now edits Jane's World Armies said that there would be a "tightening of the noose" around Saddam Hussein.

Major Heyman said that the leaks were part of a psychological campaign against Saddam Hussein which is already underway.

"Saddam Hussein is hearing all the things he doesn't want to hear", he said "And he is beginning to wobble".

It is unusual in war for plans to be disclosed in advance. This time, however, the thinking is that the more Saddam Hussein knows of the very real threats against him, the sooner he will back down.

Eliminating options

"His options are being closed down" said Major Heyman. "He is being told that he and his military face destruction if he doesn't comply with the Security Council demands."

The psychological campaign - or "PsyOps" - would be stepped up before and during a conflict, encouraging local uprisings and a coup against Saddam Hussein himself.

A military campaign itself would start with an extensive air attack in which the proportion of "smart bombs" used would be as high as 60%, compared with only 9%during the Gulf War, according to the New York Times.

The targets would be what are being called "pillars of the regime" - air defences, weapons sites and facilities, presidential sites. This time, bridges in the centre of Baghdad and other cities would be hit only when necessary.

The idea would be to try to avoid civilian casualties and damage to civilian structures. This, it is felt, would help convince the Arab world that it is regime-change which is being sought, not the punishment of the population.

Ground operations would probably start - perhaps at the same time as the air attack - with the airlifting of troops into the so-called "Scud box" in Western Iraq.

This would prevent Iraq from launching any Scud missiles towards Israel, if it has any left which are working.

Special forces would activate "out of the box", or unconventional, plans by attacking sites which might contain weapons of mass destruction - chemical and biological.

Target Basra

The city of Basra in the south would also be an early target, according to Major Heyman.

This would provide the allied forces with a port and two airfields. But the Shatt al-Arab waterway would have to be cleared of mines first and this is why four British minesweepers are on their way to the Gulf.

There are also reports that cargo ships have been taking mobile bridges to the region, equipment essential for fast-moving warfare.

In the North, troops could be helicoptered in from Turkey to secure the area already held by Kurds and block any retreat for Saddam Hussein's army. They could also threaten Saddam Hussein's home city of Takrit north of Baghdad to which he might retreat.

By seizing key positions inside Iraq, the Americans and British would not need to rely on Saudi Arabia and other reluctant neighbours of Iraq to provide bases, though Kuwait would be a willing partner and so, too, would be the Gulf state of Qatar.

As with all plans, they no doubt contain many more secret elements and might not survive contact with the other side. But the broad outline is clear enough.