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Sunday, December 27, 1998 Published at 21:07 GMT


World

Looking ahead



BBC correspondents gaze into their crystal balls and predict that among other things the Yeltsin era will end in Russia and that Monica Lewinsky will launch her own underwear range.


[ image:  ]
Washington Correspondent Stephen Sackur, says he thinks Bill Clinton will "just about stagger through the next year as a tainted, censured president after the Senate has finished with him".

He also says Larry Flynt, the wheelchair-bound pornographer, will be publishing allegations about several more senior Republicans and predicts "all politicians will react to this by saying the politics of personal destruction must end".

He also thinks Monica Lewinsky will get even more publicity.

"I predict that she will launch her own range of perfume and underwear in 1999."

Asia: More economic gloom

Asia Correspondent Matt Frei says he expects more recession and stagnation in Japan: "Possibly even a depression dragging down the rest of the world economy."


Matt Frei: If Japan heads into depression it could drag down the world economy
He says consumer spending will continue to fall in Japan crippling the economy of a country which for decades after World War II was seen as the world's most successful.

He also predicts China will have a rather dismal year - the 50th anniversary of the foundation of the People's Republic.

He says millions of workers laid off from state industries have been protesting in the streets - although this has largely gone unreported - and warns the government could face huge political protests if it continues to combine economic reforms with political repression.

He also believes there will be further bloodshed and chaos in Indonesia.

Yeltsin's days numbered

Reporting for the BBC from Moscow, Alan Little predicts change at the top in Russia and a more anti-Western tone.


Alan Little: We have entered a dangerous phase in Russia's development
"I shall stick my neck on the block and predict that we shall have a new man in the Kremlin.

"I think that President Yeltsin has entered the final phase of his tenure of office and that the new man, whoever he is, will be much more hostile to the West, much more nationalistic in tone and much more aggressive in pursuit of Russia's interests on the international stage."

Africa: Fighting and voting

Africa Correspondent Jane Standley says she expects a year marked by fighting and voting.


Jane Standley predicts more trouble ahead for President Kabila in Congo
"There will be a lot more fighting in the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola which will mean that more than a quarter of the Continent is at war."

She says people are calling the Congo Africa's World War I with the involvement of so many different nations for and against President Laurent Kabila.

"They are all fighting there and nobody seems to know how on earth this war is going to be stopped. I see the war intensifying and Kabila probably won't survive."

She says that on a positive note, South Africa goes to the polls probably in May for its second all-race elections.

"However for me the greatest hope is Nigeria - a transition from military dictatorship to democracy."

Trouble in Middle East

Middle East Correspondent Jim Muir says it would not take a genius to predict that trouble will be a key word in the region once again.


[ image: Jim Muir in Cairo: Trouble to continue in the Middle East]
Jim Muir in Cairo: Trouble to continue in the Middle East
"There will perhaps be more trouble with Saddam Hussein early in the year - he is bloodied but unbowed and even more defiant after the recent attacks by America and Britain.

He also predicts trouble in Iran with the struggle between moderates and hardliners once again heating up.

"There will also be trouble in the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, but perhaps there's a ray of hope with the possible rise of a new centrist Israeli government with some new faces."

Problems in Euroland

Business Correspondent Peter Day says when the Single European Currency is launched at the turn of the year it will be adopted by the business community very fast and appear to be "fantastically successful".

He says "Euroland" as it is being called will become the second largest economy in the world on 1 January 1999, twice the size of Japan and three-quarters the size of the US.

However he warns that long-term there are very large problems.

"It's a political idea which has been forced on very different economies and may lead in the longer term to social unrest if it doesn't work out."





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