1998 was a year of both hope and tragedy for Northern Ireland, from the unprecedented agreement between unionists and nationalists on Good Friday, to the carnage of the Omagh bombing, a reminder of all the awful horror of the last 30 years.

The horror of Omagh overshadows the progress made in 1998

The year ahead is likely to be enormously significant as well, and while the promise of a lasting peace certainly there, it is not yet secure.

The Good Friday Agreement may have offered lots of promise for the people of Northern Ireland, but it certainly didn't mark the end of all their troubles. The chance of a lasting peace is definitely there, but failure is also too close for comfort.

The issue which threatens the stability of the peace agreement is now, as it has been for some time: decommissioning, or the disposal of paramilitary weapons. The political parties might have agreed on the shape of a new executive to run the Northern Ireland assembly, but unionists are unlikely to let it take up office without the surrender of at least some IRA guns or explosives.

Gesture sought from IRA

But the IRA has said publicly three times in 1998 that it has not intention of handing over its weapons, and security sources say they see no sign of a shift in grass roots republican opinion.

LVF decommissioning was seen as a gesture and a challenge to the IRA

To date the only practical evidence of decommissioning has been a token gesture from the loyalist paramilitary group the LVF, an organisation widely regarded as untrustworthy across all sections of the community.

The two governments can only hope that if advances are made in the political arena, it might sufficiently change the mood in republican circles to allow the IRA to consider softening its hardline stance on weapons.

Even a gesture towards handing over guns and explosives, with the promise of more, might be enough for moderate unionists.

A new executive

It is now conceded that if the handover of power to the new Northern Ireland executive and assembly does go ahead in 1998 it could be later than February when it had been originally set to take place.

The Nobel Peace Prize recognised the enormous shift in the province

For the first time in a generation local politicians would have the chance to take key decisions about day to matters such as health and education, instead of ministers appointed from Westminster.

It is thought, should the transfer of power take place successfully, the Northern Ireland Secretary Mo Mowlam might return to a new post in London, allowing someone else to take up what is regarded as one of the most difficult postings within the British cabinet.

If the new executive does get up and running it would include two ministers from Sinn Fein, something which many rank and file unionists would have great difficulty accepting. The potential for demonstrations, conflicts and walkouts is enormous. But all this depends on resolving the question of decommissioning.

What about the police?

If decommissioning has proved a difficult issue for Northern Ireland's politicians another topic likely to cause at least an equal amount of strain in the peace process is the future of policing in Northern Ireland.

Chris Patten: Faces the task of reviewing Northern Ireland's police force

This most sensitive of matters for both communities is currently the subject of a Commission headed by the former Governor of Hong Kong Chris Patten, which is due to report some time next summer.

Sinn Fein is adamant that the local police force, the RUC, must be completely disbanded and replaced with something completely new.

Unionists are equally insistent that the RUC, which in their view held the line against the IRA and other terrorist groups for 30 years, must be left intact.

When Mr Patten held a series of consultative meetings around Northern Ireland to gauge public opinion, the exchange of views from both sides was extremely bitter, and there seems precious little, if any, room for compromise.

Mr Patten will need all of his formidable diplomatic skills, for this promises to be the mother of all rows. A similar review of the criminal justice system is also likely to prove controversial.

Punishment violence continues

While the ceasefires of the main paramilitary organisations appear to be holding there is still considerable concern about the continuation of paramilitary style punishment beatings - savage attacks often inflicted with metal bars or wooden sticks, or involving gunshot wounds to ankle or knee joints.

The victims are frequently accused by the paramilitaries of criminal offences such as drug dealing or joyriding. Alongside this, there is concern that republicans disillusioned with the peace process will return to violence, in particular the splinter group known as the Continuity IRA, which has not declared a ceasefire.

The longer the ceasefires hold, the more difficult it is to envisage a return to the kind of full-scale conflict that blighted the lives of the people of Northern Ireland for thirty years, but it has not yet reached the stage where people can say with complete confidence that this is a threat which is gone for good.

As well as paramilitary violence, the marching season, and in particular the unresolved dispute between Catholic residents and Protestant Orangemen at Drumcree, near Portadown, still has the potential to create major disorder.

Election test

The European Election in 1999 may also create problems, at least for those politicians in favour of the Good Friday Agreement.

Critics of the deal are likely to try to turn the election into a type of second referendum on the peace agreement, urging people with doubts to register their disapproval. The Reverend Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party is certain to use the election as an opportunity to try to undermine David Trimble's position as first Minister Designate, and leader of Northern Ireland's largest Unionist party, the Ulster Unionists.

Some people have even gone so far as to characterise it as a "revenge match" or at least a rerun of the referendum result in which the majority of people north and south of the Irish border endorsed the Good Friday Agreement.

Seeds of hope

It is too easy to be bleak when talking about Northern Ireland. Much of what has happened in the last couple of years has been unprecedented.

Few people, for example, could have imagined the leader of Sinn Fein and the leader of the Ulster Unionists sitting down for talks as they have done in recent months.

There is much to be hopeful about, but the peace process is a very delicate plant, which need round the clock attention, and the occasional prime ministerial intervention to keep it alive.