New Jersey: Scene set for dogfight

The main protagonists start the debate

By Matthew Wells for BBC News Online in New Jersey

No election anywhere in the whole country has had as many twists and turns as the battle for the New Jersey Senate seat.

Inhabitants of the "Garden State" have long been the butt of wise-cracking New Yorkers who refer to them dismissively as "bridge and tunnel" riffraff who invade Manhattan at weekends.

But it is their election which has captured the political imagination of the whole tri-state area, with more twists and turns in the script than a Latino soap opera.

Scene one: The Democrats enjoy a single-seat majority in the Senate, so a single race could make the difference between the Republicans winning back power or not.

Withdrawal

Scene two: Early this year incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Toricelli, becomes mired in the kind of cash-for-influence sleaze that helped to destroy John Major¿s government in the UK, and by the end of September he is running 13 points behind in the polls to his Republican millionaire challenger, Doug Forrester.

	:	US poll results
Click here for a state-by-state guide to seats

Scene three: A dramatic withdrawl from the race by Toricelli in front of the cameras on 30 September, where he blames everyone but himself for becoming an electoral liability for the Democrats.

He knows he cannot hold onto his crucial seat, and falls onto his sword.

Scene four: As it is less than 40 days to the election, the Republicans cry foul at the idea of a new Democrat candidate being added to the ballot as a replacement. They are in the bizarre position of arguing that Toricelli's name go forward.

In a scene reminiscent of the Bush-Gore voting fiasco in Florida, The Supreme Court effectively rules that this time, the Democrats can have their way.

	"Bush is doing an awful job. He's going to head us into a war, and that's what's really on my mind right now. I think the Democrats would be doing a better job in taking care of our security." Civil servant Temiko St Julien, 31

Scene five in this bizarre background plot features the comeback-statesman Frank Lautenberg - 78 years young, and an 18-year Senate veteran, he is persuaded by party grandees to come out of retirement, and contest the seat with only weeks to go.

The final twist is that in his final years the last time round as a senator in the 1990s, Lautenberg and Toricelli develop an intense loathing of one-another.

What could be sweeter than to step into the shoes of a disgraced enemy, and triumph where he would only have lost?

And if the latest polls are to be believed, that is exactly what Frank Lautenberg seems to be on course for. He is almost 10% points clear, but the voters of New Jersey will have the final say.

Vote challenge

In the American system where you declare party allegiances before going to the polling booth, there are more independents (in other words, official floating voters) than anyone else.

The biggest challenge facing all the politicians in this densely-populated state is getting out the vote - especially after the party scandals and manoeuvrings of recent months.

Bob Hennely, who is covering the race for the WNYC public radio network, said: "We¿ve had a spate of really bad turnouts. The last time there was an off-year Congressional election (when the presidency isn't at stake) only 42% of the people voted."

Catching up with Doug Forrester at a Jewish boys' school in the quiet town of Teaneck, you¿d never have known from the packed auditorium that there was any lack of enthusiasm.

He speaks and moves stiffly (his voice has something of the Richard Nixon about it), and there was little concession given by the Republican candidate to the fact that most of his audience were 16 or 17 years old.

	I'm probably going Republican. I voted for Bush and he's doing the best he can with the terrorism situation. The economy took a major hit because of 9/11, but it will bounce back. It always does. National security is the key. Sales manager, Frank Imbriale, 53

Ranging widely over foreign policy issues, but making sure to concentrate on the excesses of Palestinian terrorists, Doug Forrester told us that the National Missile Defence Shield would help keep evil at bay.

"The 21st Century has not begun well. We are reminded that we live in a predatory world."

Asked by some sharp-minded boys about gun control and the fate of Iraq, he stuck to the Republican big picture, praising President Bush and thanking him for the few minutes they had spent together in the limousine between Air Force One, and the commander-in-chief's campaign endorsement-stop four weeks ago. The party is very keen for a Forrester victory here.

Surreal scene

While Mr Forrester played to traditional Republican strengths in affluent Teaneck, his opponent was conforming to party stereotype just a few miles south, in the notorious city of Newark.

It has come a long way since the riots and bankruptcies of the late 1960s that almost destroyed it, and Mr Lautenberg was basking in the endorsements of the area's Latino community.

"We are for Frank, because he's a man of conscience. He understands that every time a vote is taken it has a tremendous effect on the lives of the people. The president is no friend of ours," said assemblyman Wilfredo Caraballo.

It was a surreal scene as we all stood shoulder-to-shoulder in a crowded hotel lobby - a venue which had been selected to save the campaign a few dollars, one official said. Paying guests finding the way to their rooms blocked, looked on bemused.

The Democrat love-in did give some insight into why they will probably win this race. Despite mass irritation at the party over the Toricelli affair, Lautenberg has a track record and is a known-quantity.

He can point to buildings in downtown Newark for which he secured funding, and he is a son of poor immigrants - like most of the Latinos gathered to support him.

The campaign here is bitter and personal, with both sides cranking up the "attack ads".

Forrester is characterised as a right-wing extremist fatcat, unsympathetic to the common man. Lautenberg is portrayed as ¿fumbling Frank¿ - a peacenick who is soft on crime, and too old to serve another six years.

But what sides are both really frightened of is that politics will emerge the loser.

"To endorse our candidate, we need to do the hard work. We need to be going out there and knock on doors. It's up to all of us in this room to bring in the vote," said councilman Luis Quintana.