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Monday, December 7, 1998 Published at 10:44 GMT UK Politics Robin Oakley's week in politics By BBC Political Editor Robin Oakley Tony Blair's government, like most recent governments, is finding life in Europe ever more uncomfortable and the main political events of this week are likely to take place at the Vienna summit on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, with Britain's Budget rebate coming under heavy pressure. William Hague meanwhile will be struggling to regain some authority after the Cranborne debacle and Clare Short will once more survive after her latest "Perils of Pauline" episode. Labour and Europe The government has found it hard to live up to its pro-European rhetoric and some ministers now regret the overblown rhetoric of the early days when the government was promising to "lead in Europe". It is difficult to do that when Britain is, by the government's choice, staying out of Europe's biggest enterprise so far, the Single European Currency. To counter the loss of clout at Europe's negotiating tables which has inevitably followed that decision, Mr Blair has been pursuing a cluster of single issue alliances with different EU partners to demonstrate that he means what he says about putting Britain at the heart of Europe. Thus we have seen the joint initiative with the Spanish Conservative leader on employment policy and the linking with the French at the St Malo summit to push for a European defence capability separate from (although not undermining) Nato. At the Vienna summit there are discussions due of Europe's future financing as it prepares for enlargement and the other 14 have covetous eyes on Britain's £2bn plus Budget rebate, negotiated by Lady Thatcher in the early 1980s. Niggled by President Chirac in St Malo, Mr Blair insisted that Britain has no intention of giving way. But after the veto-brandishing which has accompanied German and French efforts to push for more harmonised taxation across Europe this is hardly going to be a way of demonstrating Britain's credentials as a good team player. After its vigorous criticism of the Major administration for failing to achieve significant reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, Mr Blair and his team will be under pressure to deliver on that too. Downing Street insists that there is no question of this government allowing itself to be pushed into becoming an anti-European administration. But it is also an administration obsessed with the determination to win two full terms and anxious not to upset the tabloids and the other Eurosceptic pillars of Fleet Street. The Labour government's strategy of trying to "get the politics right first", persuading the British people that Europe was no longer hell-bent on progress towards a federal superstate and then gently coaxing towards acceptance of a single currency has been blown out of the water by Oskar Lafontaine's brash new integrationist drive. Highly publicised battles over the British rebate will hardly help. Hague and his peers Revelations of just how duplicitous Lord Cranborne had been in doing deals with the government behind his leader's back and his own confession that his behaviour had been outrageous don't appear to have helped William Hague emerge from the affair with any credit. He did not originate the mess and most Tories outside the Lords believe he had to sack Cranborne. Many of those who have thrown up their hands in horror had never heard of the peers who resigned in protest at Cranborne's dismissal. But as leader Mr Hague carries the blame for what has been yet another painful week for his party. By appointing Tom Strathclyde as Lord Cranborne's replacement after his deep involvement in the Cranborne plot and by agreeing to let Tory peers back most of the deal stitched up behind the arras by Lord Cranborne and the Government, Mr Hague lost more authority than he was hoping to gain by showing the smack of firm leadership. There is now a sharp division between Tory MPs and peers and the party leader has effectively lost control of his forces in the Upper House, the only one where they have, for the moment, a majority. As a young leader following a predecessor who was accused of dithering and not being ready enough to dismiss recalcitrant colleagues, William Hague is seen by some as obsessed with the idea of demonstrating "Strong leadership". But he is also regarded as too easily stirred up by his youthful brat pack of advisers. Some experienced parliamentary strategists believe he would have been wiser to accept the Cranborne deal, attack the government for selling out its principles on disposing of the hereditary peerage and quietly to take his revenge on Lord Cranborne later. As it is he not only suffered three days of appalling media coverage but lost the chance of going for the government at a time when it was vulnerable on its European policies. In the long term, Mr Hague could benefit so long as he retains the respect of MPs in the Commons. They applauded him enthusiastically on the night of the Cranborne sacking and in three years time the MPs will still be there and most of the peers will not. But if he continues to look so accident-prone the question is whether Mr Hague will still be there in three years time. The Tory leader is now under pressure to produce his own plans for reform of the Lords to outflank the government, which has not even announced the members of the Royal Commission on whose findings they will base their own proposals for the Stage Two reform of the Lords. Lord Mackay of Clashfern, already charged with producing an alternative Tory scheme, has been asked to hurry up. But it would be another disaster for the Tories if they were to rush into an ill-considered scheme which was rejected by their own members of the Upper House. |
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