A-level letters reveal concerns

Sir William Stubbs: Exchange of letters and e-mails

The man who has attacked the education secretary - claiming she compromised the independence of the A-level inquiry - warned her in July that the results would likely cause people to say the exams were getting too easy.

Sir William Stubbs, chairman of the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority (QCA), sent an e-mail to Estelle Morris and her number two, David Miliband, on July 29.

He said that, as the results were coming in from markers, exam boards were reporting that students were doing very well in their A-levels.

So the QCA and its regulatory equivalents in Wales and Northern Ireland, Accac and Ccea, were debating how best to present the results - but in any case he thought there should be a fresh review of standards.

Examiners' concern

As well as the e-mail, Sir William has made public an exchange of letters between himself and Kathleen Tattersall, who chairs the management committee of the Joint Council for General Qualifications, which publishes the results on behalf of the various exam boards.

She wrote to him on 22 March following a meeting between the boards and the regulators 10 days earlier.

She indicated a concern of the boards that Sir William might have been implying that they should set grades in line with the previous year's results rather than this year's performance.

She stressed that all the boards adhered carefully to the code of practice requiring them to "maintain parity of standards in each subject from year to year".

"What we cannot do is predetermine at this stage what the precise level of the awards will be in the 2002 summer examination," she wrote.

Potential injustice

"This would be utterly contrary to the spirit and letter of the code of practice which directs us to have regard not only to statistical data but also to the entry for each subject and candidates' actual performance.

"We are sure that you were not suggesting at our 12 March meeting that we disregard this evidence," she added.

"To ignore this dimension and attempt to impose an artificial constraint on the level of awards would be to run the risk of creating a serious injustice for candidates."

Sir William replied on 19 April that he was concerned that the public have confidence in the new A-levels.

He referred back to the report on A-level standards which the QCA had commissioned from an international panel of three exam experts, which had been published in January.

Grade inflation

This had explained how "grade inflation" operated - the tendency for examiners to err on the side of generosity when drawing the boundaries between different grades, so that there was, as Sir William put it, "an upward rather than downward movement in the face of uncertainty".

He wrote: "I am conscious of the importance of judgements about candidates' actual performances."

But because the A-levels were following a new format this year - with the first of the A2 exams - examiners had less evidence than usual to help them assess the correct grades.

"In this situation, I do expect last year's A-level results to provide a very strong guide to this year's outcomes," he wrote.

"I am clear that grades for this summer's A-level candidates can only be determined using a combination of professional judgement and statistical evidence."

Tomlinson 'satisfied'

To ignore either would breach the code of practice, "risk serious disadvantage to candidates" and should seriously worry the heads of the exam boards.

Sir William said he had shown this letter on Wednesday to Mike Tomlinson, who is carrying out the independent inquiry into this year's A-level grades.

He said Mr Tomlinson had told him it was a "very good letter you sent, it was perfectly proper for the regulator to write in those terms, indeed you have a duty to write in those terms".

But Mr Tomlinson had put it to him that the boards could have been left with a "lingering perception" that he was telling them to hold the pass rate at 90%, the same as in 2001.

"My reaction was, if they believed that, why did they not come back to me and say so?" Sir William said, and Mr Tomlinson "professed himself satisfied" with that.