Following is an excerpt from All India Radio 0245 GMT 29 November 98:

A snap reaction to the results of the assembly elections will be that the days of the BJP-led government at the centre are numbered.

But such a reaction will be hasty. No doubt that there has been something akin to a wave in favour of the Congress party, except in Mizoram.

Bombshell

The stellar success of the Congress in the other three states has surprised many. The results have belied expectations and they also proved partly wrong the widely acclaimed exit poll.

Especially, the results from Madhya Pradesh have come as a bombshell. The BJP was expected to wrest control from the Congress. On the other hand, the party has suffered a severe drubbing in all regions of the state, except Vidharba.

The deterioration can be gauged from the fact that while after the 1993 assembly elections, the BJP chalked up 112 seats, it led in 223 assembly segments in the Lok Sabha elections of this year.

In this election, of the 227 results available, the Congress has won 120 and the BJP 92. The ruling Congress is expected to retain power.

Price rise factor

The dismal performance of the BJP must be attributed to factors other than what the BJP-led government at the centre did or did not do. Discerning observers will say that the assembly elections in 4 out of 25 states are not a test of popularity of the central government which has been in office for just 8 months.

What might have triggered the voters anger against the BJP is the phenomenal rise in prices of essential commodities. Therefore, it would be wrong to apportion value judgments on the basic policies of either the BJP or the Congress.

There is considerable force in the BJP's claim that the Congress, which had been ruling the country for 45 years, must take the blame for lack of basic amenities like drinking water.

The fact is that no party has addressed basic problems of the people although almost every recognized party has been in power in one state or another throughout the years after independence.

Confining ourselves to the assembly elections in four states, the high cost of onions cannot expose the BJP's alleged communalism or prove the Congress party's claims to its secular credentials, nor can it obliterate the BJP's achievement in restoring to the nation the feeling of strength and self-confidence by its nuclear tests in May.

Local issues

The fact is that vital national issues were eclipsed by local issues. This assembly elections, therefore, cannot be taken as a test of the country-wide popularity of the two main parties.

But it does show to them how very fragile is the foundation of power. It seems too early for the Congress to rejoice. The real danger to it is that the results may encourage the return of the culture of sycophancy with a vengeance...