Traffic is snarled, with queues of creeping cars stretching for mile after frustrating mile, but this isn't the morning rush hour. No, this is the scene at the typical American shopping centre at the start of the Christmas shopping season.

After Americans recover from over-indulging on turkey on Thursday, they rush to the stores en masse. It's one of the busiest shopping days of the year.

In an economy driven by consumer spending, the holiday shopping season is one of the single most important months of the year. And the day after Thanksgiving is a "barometer for how sales will be the rest of the season," said Karen Killeen, spokeswoman for the International Council of Shopping Centres.

Despite a fall filled with economic uncertainty, American consumers appear poised for a holiday buying binge. Consumer surveys predict up to a 7% increase in retail sales this holiday season.

Holiday binge

The Conference Board, which conducts monthly consumer confidence polls in the United States, projects record spending for Christmas gifts this year. The board's annual holiday spending survey found, on average, American families will spend an average of nearly $500 (£300) each on holiday gifts up from last year's $465.

"Favourable economic conditions and confidence about the health of the economy over the next six months have lifted consumer spirits," says Lynn Franco, Associate Director of The Conference Board's Consumer Research Centre.

The holiday survey projects retail sales will increase by 6% to 7%, with an estimated $50bn in total sales. "This is the largest increase of the 12 years we've been doing this survey. It's going to be a blockbuster holiday season," Ms Franco said.

Until recently, retailers were looking at an uncertain holiday season., but a spate of economic good news, a resurgent stock market and continued historically high levels of employment have bolstered consumer confidence.

Feel-good factor

Americans were feeling better about the economy for the first time in four months, according to the November consumer confidence survey.

Despite domestic and global economic upheaval, Americans' spending habits didn't reflect concern.

"When you look at whole year, while confidence has been shaky, spending was up every single month of the year," said Jennifer Roberts, spokeswoman for the International Mass Retail Association.
"(Americans) have jobs. They have money, and they are spending," Roberts said, adding that if Americans are going to spend money at any time during the year, "they are going to spend it at Christmas."

Jobs galore

And the holiday season is shaping up to be good not only for shoppers but also for workers. The labour market remains tight in the United States, Ms. Roberts said.

It's a workers market. During the holidays, 600,000 seasonal jobs will be added to deal with the Christmas crush.

"Competition is really fierce. There are more jobs than people. People who get jobs will be paid higher salaries and receive benefits," Ms.Roberts added.

Fuelling economic growth

The holiday shopping forecast is so strong that it is expected to fuel continued economic growth into the next year.

"We've seen that consumers have been fuelling expansion for some time, and it doesn't look like that will turnaround any time soon. We expect consumer spending to continue the longest expansion in American history," Ms. Franco said.

No savings

The most recent government figures showed consumer spending growing at an annual of rate of 5.7%, while economic growth as a whole was still a surprisingly strong 3.9% in the third quarter.

But the one cloud on the horizon is the lack of savings. Consumers are actually spending more than they are earning at the moment, using their stock market holdings as security to increase their debts.