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Thursday, November 26, 1998 Published at 07:18 GMT


Business: The Economy

CBI growth forecast gloomy



More gloom and doom is expected as the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) releases its monthly regional trends.

The CBI is likely to confirm a weakening trend in manufactring orders and output expectations in November.

The survey will highlight how the downturn has shifted from exports to domestic demand.

Economic slowdown

CBI figures for next year's economic growth are expected to be far worse than government predictions, and will strengthen fears of an economic slowdown.

The growth forecast for 1999 is expected to plunge to about 0.8%, far lower than the Treasury's 1% to 1.5%.

It is also likely to predict that growth in 2000 will also be lower than government forecasts of 2.25% to 2.75%.

Recession on the way

Last week, the Organisation for Economic and Cooperation and Development, said the economy would grow by 0.8% next year and just 1.5% in 2000.

The most depressing forecast came from Lehman Brothers which cut its 1999 growth to just 0.2% and said the country was heading towards recession in the first half of next year.

Recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product.

Michael Dicks, a Lehman economist, said there was a 75% chance that the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) would cut interest rates again in its forthcoming meeting on December 10.



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