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Monday, December 7, 1998 Published at 10:43 GMT


Analysis: How long can Yeltsin go on?

Moscow's Red Square at dusk: Preserving political stability is the challenge facing Moscow's political class

By Russian affairs specialist Malcolm Haslett:

Mr Yeltsin's friends and supporters find themselves, in more senses than one, with the dilemma of hospital surgeons: how long do you postpone major surgery in the hope it will not be necessary?


Russian journalist Pavel Felgenhauer: 'I believe he could resign'
The president's camp acknowledge that he is now little more than a figurehead.

But their argument for keeping him in office is that he brings stability. To bring forward elections, for parliament or presidency, would simply heighten tension in a country increasingly rocked by political scandal.

Feelings running high

Political passions are already high, firstly after a row over anti-semitic statements by Communist MP Albert Makashov, and secondly after the murder of democratic MP Galina Starovoitova.

The economy is also in a mess, requiring tough and unpopular measures from the government at a time when the people's patience is running out.

But is Mr Yeltsin in fact contributing to stability or undermining it? The opposition is in no doubt. Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov has once again called for the president to resign because he is clearly, says Mr Zyuganov, unable to run the country.

But now some of the president's friends are also beginning to hint it might be better if he stepped down.

The parliamentary leader of the centrist NDR party (Nash Dom Rossiya or Our Home is Russia), Alexander Shokhin, has now also said that in his view the president is unable to run the country and that there should be early parliamentary and presidential elections.

Primakov as successor?


[ image: Yevgeny Primakov: Could be the best option for the Yeltsin camp]
Yevgeny Primakov: Could be the best option for the Yeltsin camp
What is more, the deputy head of the president's own staff, Oleg Sysuyev, recently hinted that Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov - who has always said he does not want to be president - should start thinking seriously about being a candidate.

Mr Primakov would, if Boris Yeltsin were unable to continue, take over the functions of president for three months pending new elections. But perhaps, Mr Sysuyev suggested, Mr Primakov should consider being a candidate to take over for a full term.

That indicates that Yeltsin himself may be preparing to promote prime minister Primakov as their prefered candidate in any new election.

At 69 Mr Primakov is in fact older than Yeltsin, but in rather better health. Also recent opinion polls indicate that he is the man most Russians believe is the most likely to unite the country.

That is something which the Yeltsin camp will take very much into account. The president wants, above all, to prevent communists or extreme nationalists reversing the political and economic reforms of the last seven years.

Given the current weakness of the reformist camp, and of former Yeltsin favourite Viktor Chernomyrdin, a strong "centrist" like Primakov might be their best option.



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