It really is an almighty mess. As if the scandal of Ron Davies' exit was not bad enough, the attempt to fix the succession has backfired badly. Tony Blair is now left with exactly the solution he did not want - another divisive leadership election in the troubled Welsh Labour Party.

Blair's man, the new Welsh Secretary Alun Michael, is no doubt sincere when he says it would be a great honour for him to lead the new Assembly. And he is also sincere when he explains that the reason he did not seek the post last time round was because Ron Davies was the obvious candidate.

But Mr Michael is still saddled with the unfortunate image of a pressganged performer, and a very late entrant to boot. It is not a good start to the election process.

Rhodri Morgan is the main opponent (unless other big names join the fray) and his strategy is simple. Having been unceremoniously dumped by Tony Blair the day following Labour's massive election win (after eight years' graft on the Opposition front bench) Mr Morgan doesn't feel he owes the Prime Minister the slightest favour. Yes, he is loyal in the broad party sense. But personal loyalty is not possible.

Mr Morgan sees this as his big chance to do a really big job (at last) and he is not going to be persuaded to stand aside for "Downing Street's man" as Mr Michael is being billed by opponents.

There are two main points I'd like to make about all this. Rhodri Morgan was badly treated by Mr Blair, it's true, but then again prime ministers have the right to make these decisions. But Mr Blair's fixers cannot reasonably expect Mr Morgan cheerfully to wave goodbye to his ambitions while they try to avoid a messy election and have Alun Michael conveniently "anointed". It just won't work.

So there will be an election, and other candidates might yet emerge. The fight will be based on the electoral college (unions, candidates, and the grassroots) that helped Ron Davies defeat Rhodri Morgan last time round. The more openly democratic One Member One Vote would almost certainly hand victory to Mr Morgan, but the College gives Mr Michael a fighting chance - not least because the Union block votes should stack up neatly for him as Mr Blair's man.

There is a more serious issue to be raised regarding the implications of the election result for the success of the Assembly itself.

Mr Blair will have to work with whoever wins. Of course he will. But there is a clear (unstated) message from the heart of government. The Welsh assembly, a much weaker body than its powerful Scottish cousin, will need all the friends it can get during the early years. Funding decisions will be crucial.

The implication of the signals from Downing Street is that a Morgan-led Assembly would hardly get the most favourable treatment possible. But a Michael-led body would be listened to with more patience. This factor will play an increasing role in the coming election.