Nepal's power struggle set to continue

Mount Everest attracts foreign currency through tourism

By South Asia Specialist Alastair Lawson

Nepalese Prime Minister, Girija Prasad Koirala, is about to call a general election and he is a worried man.

Japan, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have all expressed concern political instability in Nepal.

The Japanese ambassador to Nepal, Tomihiko Yanase, even warned in October that that situation in the Himalayan kingdom could jeopardise the future flow of aid into the country - Japan is Nepal's largest foreign aid donor.

Weak governments

Over the last decade Nepal has experienced a succession of weak governments, few of which have lasted longer than a year.

The situation was particularly unstable during the tumultuous events of April 1990.

At that time there were huge demonstrations in the capital, Kathmandu, as people gathered in the streets to demand an end to the country's absolute monarchy.

In several incidents, the army opened fire on the crowds, killing 50 people and injuring 200 others.

As the pressure built, 100,000 people converged on the royal palace.

King Birendra was forced to agree political reforms. The country became a constitutional monarchy and democracy was re-introduced for the first time since the early 1960s.

Since the return of democracy, Nepal has had six governments from opposite ends of the political spectrum, many of them coalitions made up of right and left wing parties.

In-fighting and intrigue

None of these administrations has been able to escape in-fighting and political intrigue that is so commonplace in Nepalese politics.

Many observers say the primary consideration of each new government is to stay in power for longer than a year.

GP Koirala: 'Democracy is a new experiment'

The desire to cling on to power sometimes makes for strange bedfellows.

Last year a coalition containing communists and monarchists was in power.

The current administration of GP Koirala mostly consists of the middle of the road Congress party, but it too relies on communist support to remain in power.

No progress on economy

None of the governments since 1991 has made much progress in addressing the country's pressing economic problems.

Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world, estimated by the World Bank to have one of the lowest per capita incomes and highest infant mortality rates.

Because the country is landlocked between India and China, politicians in Kathmandu agree not to upset either of their larger neighbours.

Nepal faces a TB epidemic

That is because both invest heavily in the country, and Nepal has little capacity to raise foreign exchange except through tourism or the development of its hydro-electric power potential.

Seeing results of change

While many western economists say that the kingdom has made some progress in liberalising its economy in recent years, there is little doubt that a substantial part of the country's population of over 20 million feel that the re-introduction of democracy has done little to improve the quality of their lives.

That is reflected in the strong support still given to the country's two major communist parties, one of which is accused of having links with a Maoist group in the west of Nepal which is currently waging a campaign for the violent overthrow of the government.

With general elections due to be held in Nepal in 1999, the struggle for power is set to resume.

The likelihood will be that - as in previous votes - no party will be able to win an overall majority.