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Tuesday, November 3, 1998 Published at 19:20 GMT


UK economy heading for slowdown

Gordon Brown: "Maastricht criteria will be met"

The Chancellor, Gordon Brown, has predicted a downturn in economic growth in his pre-budget statement to the House of Commons.


BBC Chief Political Correspondent John Sergeant assesses today's debate
Mr Brown's speech included Treasury forecasts, encouragement for enterprise and productivity through tax breaks and an extra £250m for the NHS.


[ image:  ]
Mr Brown described the package of measures as "long-term decisions which will equip all our country for the future".

But the Shadow Chancellor Francis Maude accused the chancellor of "arrogant complacency" and said the measures were "just moving the deck chairs around on the Titanic".

Inflation targeted at present level

Mr Brown said: "In this year's pre-budget report we seek to steer a course of stability amid a world economic downturn.

"We set in place measures to improve productivity and provide support for enterprise, we will introduce new measures to make work pay for all our people and we show how we will invest in health education and our infrastructure to provide the modern services on which people rely."

He went on: "In this uncertain world, my objective, the objective for Britain, is that we steer a stable course and that by building on our long term strengths, we are more than equal to any and every challenge the global economy presents."

The chancellor said the UK inflation forecast would remain at its present level of 2.5% for future years.


Gordon Brown: growth projection
He then announced a revised prediction for growth next year of around 1% to 1.5% - compared to the 1.75% to 2.25% forecast at the last Budget in March.

This would help achieve "stable growth as a quarter of the world is in recession", said Mr Brown.

Growth would improve to between 2.25% to 2.75% in the financial year beginning in 2000 and 2.75% to 3.25% the following year, the chancellor said.


Gordon Brown on spending and the current account
Mr Brown also devoted his statement to his plans for an inclusive programme as part of the challenge to increase productivity.

On debt, the chancellor said this would fall as a proportion of national income to 39% by the next financial year.

Net borrowing would then be £4bn, and would continue to drop to £1bn by 2004.

The chancellor reassured "those members anxious about the Maastricht criteria" that they would comfortably be met over the next five years.

Tax breaks for enterprise

Mr Brown said: "What makes for a good economy makes for a good society. One that is fair and one that is cohesive."

That includes promoting a stakeholding society of enterprise, said the chancellor.

Mr Brown went on to unveil plans for tax breaks for employees who buy shares in their companies and private savers who invest in small firms.

Firms which send staff to schools and colleges would receive tax breaks, he said.

The chancellor also revealed plans to "honour the spirit of invention" by tax credits for small business who invest in research and development.

Eight new institutes of enterprise would be established at universities across the country.

"The genius of British invention is the engine for growth and capital," he told MPs.

He added that the Inland Revenue and the Contributions Agency would merge to help small businesses.

The government was re-examining building controls and planning regulations to "identify barriers to productivity", Mr Brown told MPs.

Banks had been asked to see what steps could be taken to "more effectively serve" the needs of business.

The Office of Fair Trading would be given a 20% funding boost to "break down the barriers which prevent new firms entering markets and keep prices high for consumers."

The chancellor declared: "Our policy is pro-small business, pro-share ownership, pro-tax simplification and pro-competition."

NHS cash boost

Mr Brown also said productivity would be targeted in the public sector, particularly absenteeism.

There was news of expansion of the New Deal programme to provide 60,000 opportunities for the long-term unemployed in 28 areas.

The chancellor closed his statement by addressing personal taxation levels and public spending, including an immediate £250m for the NHS this winter.

An extra £40bn would be available for modernising education and health over the next three years, he said.

Changes to the tax and benefit system would mean the guaranteed minimum income for low paid families in work will be £190 a week from October next year, up from £180 originally announced - with no income tax on incomes below £220 a week.

There will also be new guarantees of a minimum income of £220 a week for disabled people with no income tax below £274.

Pensioners will also have minimum guaranteed incomes and, as a result of VAT cuts and winter fuel help, pensioners are saving £108 on their fuel bills and the poorest pensioners £140, said Mr Brown.



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In this section

Brown on budget defensive

Gordon's 'good ship'

Cheerful chancellor's upbeat message

Tories slate 'Peter Pan' statement

What the chancellor announced

Hard labour from Chancellor Brown

'Don't cut spending'

What is a pre-budget report?

Full text of the pre-budget statement