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Tuesday, November 3, 1998 Published at 12:31 GMT


World: Middle East

The Divided Nations: Looking for consensus

The stand-off seems likely to continue

By World Affairs Correspondent Nick Childs

The UN Security Council has unanimously condemned Iraq for its latest escalation in the stand-off over weapons inspections and sanctions. But getting a consensus on how to respond may prove more difficult.

The crisis in February over the inspectors' access to so-called "presidential sites" highlighted the rifts between the major powers on how to handle Iraq.

The United States and Britain threatened to use force against Iraq. But Russia and China were against such an approach. France was at best ambivalent and unenthusiastic.

And that's unlikely to have changed.

US officials believe their low-key approach to Iraq's mounting challenges to the inspectors since August will pay dividends now, and make it easier to achieve a broad coalition against Baghdad. For the moment, Washington insists the emphasis is on diplomacy.

But the prospect of backing this up with an agreed warning of military action seems as remote now as it was in February.

The UN Security Council is considering a new resolution on Iraq, but it's likely to stop short of any explicit threat of force.

No consensus

So far, Washington and London remain the only major powers issuing warnings of possible military action.

The United States insists it wasn't isolated in February. But the list of countries backing US moves then fell far short of the grand coalition which fought the 1991 Gulf conflict. Besides Britain, support was limited to Australia, Canada, New Zealand and a number of European countries which made token offers of forces.

Italy and Germany agreed to let US forces use their air bases to support any action against Iraq. But since then, the governments in both countries have changed. And, on a visit to Washington, new German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer displayed a lack of enthusiasm for the threat to use force.

The Gulf Arab states remain key. In February, all but Kuwait were reluctant to give public backing to the US approach. It's too early to say whether recent movements in the Middle East peace process might make them more inclined to back Washington now.

Technically, this latest stand-off could prove one of the most serious since the Gulf War. But Iraq is continuing to allow some UN technical teams to continue their work. And it's excluding from its latest ban the International Atomic Energy Agency - responsible for monitoring its nuclear programmes. That's bound to complicate the UN's problems in working out how to respond.



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