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Friday, November 6, 1998 Published at 14:59 GMT


Business

'Tis not yet the season to be jolly

Christmas: coming earlier and earlier

BBC News Online's Stuart O'Brien has trouble adjusting to the Christmas shopping season.

Glowing with warmth and ultraviolet radiation, I returned to London in late August from two weeks in Greece.

Most of the Mediterranean was going up in flames due to a severe lack of rainfall.

Even London on my return was basking in unusually hot weather.

The last thing on my mind was winter.

However, when I went into the supermarket to stock up, I found the 'seasonal' section being stripped of its sun creams, aftersun and beach paraphernalia, and replaced by Christmas decorations, trees and greetings cards.

But my supermarket was already behind in the Christmas rush; Harrods launched its Christmas display on August 8!

This was to allow overseas customers to buy their "traditional British Christmas goods'" here and give other customers "plenty of time to begin their preparations for the busy festive season ahead", said their spokeswoman.

Apparently, Christmas "officially" begins at Harrods on November 7.

Season of goodwill?

In a year when there have been permanent High Street sales, it is understandable that traders would want to get a jump on the Christmas rush - but to extend the 'season of goodwill' into the tail end of summer seems absurd.

Does it really mean increased expenditure, or is it to give customers more time to spread their average £700 spending over a longer period.

All the evidence seems to point to the latter.

Last year, in spite of encouraging pre-Christmas surveys, the boom sales over the holiday period did not materialise.

Sales increases were down for a number of retailers, including House of Fraser, owners of Harrods.

Christmas run-in

For the industry as a whole, mid-October marks the beginning of the "official" 10-week Christmas run-in, when the industry does between a third and a half of its annual business.

It is being sold as the "best value-for-money Christmas ever", since the sales signs are expected to go up as early as November, (as soon as the mid-season sales signs come down, presumably).

For the consumer, this could be a boom time as some outlets slash prices to get rid of unsold stock, while 'autumn value' promotions have already begun in stores like Marks & Spencer (ah yes, autumn, that period that used to sit between summer and Christmas).

Meanwhile, retailers are hoping for a return to 1994, when a year of flat consumer spending and high interest rates was followed by a yuletide binge.

They are however expecting something grimmer, more Dickensian; the head of M&S says he is expecting a 'bloodbath'.

While surveys bear out these pessimistic prospects for the retailers, customers have got wise to the fact that their money will go further if they wait for the inevitable discounts.

They'll shed crocodile tears for the vendors who, according to comparative price surveys, have been overcharging them for everything from food to stereo equipment over the last four years.

Incidentally, the latest survey from Supermarketing Magazine shows that seven out of ten shoppers actually resent Christmas goods appearing so early, but the shops still roll out the 'little old lady' argument about spreading the cost over a longer period.

I'm looking forward to January, when the Christmas sales are over.....and the Easter eggs are on the shelves.





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