When Chancellor Gordon Brown made his first pre-budget statement last November he was riding the crest of a wave.

The government was still revelling in its post-election honeymoon, the economy was in good shape and he had a couple of surprises up his sleeve.

His own personal standing was also particularly high, and he used the statement to unveil a mini-budget which included cash help for pensioners to meet winter fuel bills and a tax credit for low income families.

He claimed the idea of a pre-budget statement was to allow a full debate around the government's policies.

That never really got off the ground - but instead it gave him a good opportunity to prepare people for budget tax rises and offer a couple of sweeteners.

This year, things look very different and Mr Brown has got a far tougher job on his hands. He has admitted that he will have to cut his previous forecasts for growth as a result of the global slowdown and will announce the figures in his statement.

In last year's budget he predicted growth of between 1.75% and 2.25% but many believe he will change that to nearer 1%.

But he has slapped down Tory claims that he is driving Britain into recession and that there is a massive £36m "black hole" at the centre of his spending plans.

Enough cash

The opposition insists he will be forced either to cut spending, or increase borrowing or taxes to meet the shortfall.

It has also attacked him for tying his own hands by setting departmental spending last year for the following three years.

But he says, despite the slowdown, he has enough cash in his reserves to meet his spending commitments on schools and hospitals in full.

At the same time, there have been a series of announcements of big job losses, particularly in the electronics sector, and the threatened closure of Rover's Longbridge plant in Birmingham.

And, despite the government's constant reminders that jobs are being created faster than they are being lost, there is a fear that the trend may turn around, with some experts claiming there will be 500,000 job losses over the next two years.

So, when he gets to his feet in the Commons on Tuesday, November 3 the Chancellor will need to persuade the opposition as well as many on his own benches, that he is still in control of things.

Francis Maude: Government has squandered legacy

The Tories see an opportunity in the economic slowdown to damage the government and accuse it of throwing away the "golden legacy" it inherited from them.

More cautious

And shadow chancellor Francis Maude is bound to make much of the government's problems.

Mr Brown is certain to be more cautious than last year and is unlikely to make many dramatic announcements.

One possibility is the long-rumoured "green" tax on energy to hit all gas, electricity and oil consumed by business and which could bring into the Treasury anything between £2bn and £5bn a year.

Mr Brown is also certain to return to his constant theme of late - improving productivity. That could include tax incentives for training and the modernisation of industry, but will also signal a demand for a tight rein on wage increases.

His speech is also certain to be littered with references to "prudence" and "caution" and the government's determination to introduce long term stability and end the cycle of boom and bust.

Serious setback

But for the chancellor, the political significance of the statement will be crucial to his own standing.

He suffered a serious setback in the cabinet reshuffle in the summer, when the prime minister moved to limit his influence by sidelining his supporters.

The constant rumours about splits between the two men and of Mr Brown's leadership ambitions have also done little to boost his standing.

And, for the first time since the election, he has come under concerted attack over his handling of the economy.