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Monday, October 26, 1998 Published at 22:05 GMT


Business: The Economy

Which way for UK industry?

September's survey found export orders at their lowest level for 15 years

All eyes will be looking to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) on Tuesday and its latest survey on the state of British industry.

Last month the CBI's industrial trends survey reported that export orders had fallen to their lowest level for 15 years.

Total orders had fallen to their weakest level for five-and-a-half years.

With the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting just a week away, October's survey could help sway the decision on whether interest rates need to be cut again.

The committee has cut rates by 0.25 percentage points since the last report, but many business and political leaders have since said that this was not enough.

In September the CBI said that the effect of the crises in East Asia and other emerging markets, together with a softening of domestic demand, pointed to a downturn in manufacturing output over the coming months.

Gloomy expectations

September's survey found export order books at their weakest level since January 1983.

Only 8% of firms said export orders were above normal, while 62% said they were below normal - a negative balance of 54%, against 51% in August.

The survey also revealed 32% of firms expected output to drop over the next four months, against just 19% expecting to increase output, the lowest level since November 1992.

Companies also expected UK prices to fall significantly over the next four months.





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