Terror warning row tests Bush's popularity

Mr Bush is no longer immune to political attack

Analysis
By Nick Bryant BBC Washington Correspondent

The main political effect of the admission from the White House that President George W Bush received an intelligence briefing last August warning of possible hijackings of American planes is to blow away the Teflon coating which has protected him from criticism since 11 September.

Up until Wednesday, this was a president seemingly at the climax of his power, with astoundingly high approval ratings and an intimate bond of trust with the American people.

Many are now asking - the families of the victims of the hijacking attacks included - if the president did enough to prevent al-Qaeda from striking.

President Bush arrived in the Oval Office promising to restore honour and integrity to the White House. Why, then, did it take eight months to reveal that warnings of possible hijackings had been received in the weeks leading up to the attack?

Election year politics

Already, Mr Bush has faced an acid shower of criticism from senior Democrats, who are demanding a blue-ribbon commission to investigate the intelligence failures that may have made America more vulnerable to attack.

Without question, party chieftains - like Senate Majority leader Tom Daschle, and House Minority leader Dick Gephardt - view this as an opportunity to dent the president's popularity.

With congressional elections looming in November that will decide the control of the House and Senate, they believe there could be a hefty political dividend from the recent revelations.

Over the coming months, senior Democrats will likely open up other new lines of attacks against the administration:

• Why has it taken so long to capture or kill Osama Bin Laden?
• Why have so few senior members of al-Qaeda been apprehended?
• Why was it that the US relied so heavily upon the Northern Alliance rather than fight the Afghanistan war itself?

The Bush administration's conduct of the war could become the focus of fierce political debate.

Up until now, they have restricted their attacks on the president to his handling of the economy, health care, education, the environment and the Enron scandal - so-called 'kitchen table' domestic issues.

Strategy could backfire

The over-riding problem for the Democrats is that the strategy could easily backfire.

President Bush has said he detects the "whiff of politics in the air".

Vice President Cheney called accusations 'thoroughly irresponsible and totally unworthy'

His Vice-President, Dick Cheney, has gone even further, arguing that suggestions by some Democrats that the attacks could have been prevented were "thoroughly irresponsible and totally unworthy" of national leaders in a time of war.

If the Democrats overplay their hand, then Bush's popularity could rise even further.

The experience of President Bill Clinton will serve as a cautionary tale.

Even while the former president was being impeached by Congress, his personal approval ratings went up.

At the same time, the popularity of the Republican Party plummeted, and two of its most senior figures - House Speaker Newt Gingrich and House Speaker-designate Bob Livingston - were forced to step down.

The president is apparently incensed that the Democrats have launched such a hostile attack.

More worrying for the White House, however, is that the criticisms have been echoed by many of the relatives of the 3,000 victims of 11 September.

If that continues, it will become harder for the president to brush aside the criticisms as 'politics as normal'.