Open battle for Mali's presidency

Political posters are ubiquitous in Mali

By the BBC's Joan Baxter Bamako

On the surface, Mali's presidential election looks like a battle of the posters.

Just about every flat surface from the capital, Bamako, all the way to Timbuktu has been plastered with election advertisements.

If the size, quality and number of those posters bearing the faces of the men vying for the presidency of Mali is any gauge, it seems three of the 24 candidates are leading the race.

We young people follow all the candidates who give us money and gifts. It doesn't mean we will vote for them.

Sory Traore

They are former President Amadou Toumani Toure, former Prime Minister Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and former Finance Minister Soumaila Cisse.

Not coincidentally, these three are also leading the most lavish and expensive campaigns.

They are spending untold millions of dollars to travel by air and cover the vast country and remote regions inaccessible by road.

Gifts welcome

The candidates woo large crowds at their campaign rallies by bringing in live bands, distributing the t-shirts, sugar, tea and cash that Malians have come to expect from candidates seeking their votes.

But Sory Traore, a journalist in the northern town of Mopti, says it is dangerous to estimate a candidate's chances based on how many people show up for rallies wearing their t-shirts.

Campaign posters have become decorations

"We young people follow all the candidates who give us money and gifts," he says. "It doesn't mean we will vote for them. We just want to get something from them now, before they're elected, because afterwards, they won't give us anything."

Sory Traore, like many of the 5.4 million eligible voters in Mali, says even if there are three favourites, none can count on victory, certainly not in the first round on 28 April.

And even the candidates themselves appear unsure of who is really ahead in the race.

This is surprising for many observers and diplomats who for years felt that General Amadou Toumani Toure would be a certain winner should he decide to run for president in 2002.

Grubby politics

For years, Mr Toure has been a popular hero in his country.

Toure was a hero in his own lifetime. Now he's dirtying himself in politics.

A Malian voter

He staged the coup in 1991 that ended 23 years of heavy-handed rule by General Moussa Traore, and then led the country through a transition year into democracy.

He went on to develop a reputation for peace mediation with the UN in Central Africa.

He spent much of the past decade adding to his own legend and grassroots popularity with his charity for children and humanitarian work - vaccination campaigns, fighting guinea worm, putting up grinding mills - in Mali's vast hinterland.

But the main reason that Malians revered Mr Toure was that he did not cling to power in 1992, and refused to run in the elections in 1992 that brought President Alpha Oumar Konare to power.

A hero turned politician

"By declaring himself a candidate seeking to be president, he destroyed his own myth," says one Malian man interviewed on the street in Bamako.

"He had everything where he was," says one woman who regretted his candidacy.

"He was respected, he had money and he was a hero in his own lifetime. Now he's dirtying himself in politics."

Even Mr Toure admits nothing will be decided until the day of the elections.

"I can only hope," he says. "Of all the candidates, if I don't win, I have the most to lose."

Party barons

Although 26 political parties are supporting Mr Toure, none of them comes close to the well-oiled and powerful political machinery behind the two other leading contenders in the race.

Soumaila Cisse, candidate for the ruling party, Adema, is leading an impressive but controversial campaign, moving about Mali in a helicopter that generates enormous excitement in rural areas.

"Aristocratic" Keita is backed by Islamic groups

Reputedly one of the richest men in the country, the former finance minister appears to have widespread support among the youth, despite frequent questions about the source of his fortune.

His candidacy has also been disputed from within Adema, weakening the political machine that has ruled Mali for the past decade.

A good part of Adema's former strength has been sapped by Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, who left the ruling party last year and with many party barons, formed the RPM.

Mr Keita also has the support of Mali's Islamic associations. They have told their Muslim followers to vote for him.

Surprises expected

Mr Keita, as an "aristocrat" in Bambara society and with six years as President Konare's strong man, has many advantages.

"We think he has 35% to 40% of the vote," says Toumani Diallo, a spokesperson for the RPM. "That means he will go through to the second round on 12 May, either with General Toure or with Soumaila Cisse."

Should that happen, Mr Keita will receive valuable support from two important political parties, CNID, under Mountaga Tall, and MPR, under Choguel Maiga.

But until the elections, Mr Tall and Mr Maiga remain presidential candidates themselves, dark horses but not yet eliminated from the list of potential winners.

And most Malians are saying that these elections - with 24 candidates and more than 80 political parties - may just bring big surprises.