Burma set for key UN talks

Mr Razali (left) has helped get prisoners released

By Larry Jagan BBC Burma analyst in Bangkok

The United Nations envoy to Burma, Razali Ismail, has arrived in Rangoon to try to revive talks between the country's ruling generals and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

After more than 12 months of talks, UN officials say Mr Razali's visit is really a make-or-break trip because the international community is growing increasingly impatient at the lack of concrete results.

Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest

But privately, UN officials admit that Mr Razali is unlikely to have any new ideas to put before the two sides, and the prospects for a major breakthrough are dim.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and the Malaysian Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, have both written personally to Burma's top leader General Than Shwe, urging him to give the opposition leader an effective political role.

But in recent weeks the generals seem to have been backtracking on earlier hints that they were ready to release her.

Her party, the National League for Democracy, is also anxious to see the dialogue move onto substantive talks as soon as possible.

Credibility at stake

Sources in the NLD say the opposition leader herself is growing concerned at the lack of progress and may consider breaking her silence soon if nothing substantive emerges from Mr Razali's mission.

General Than Shwe wants concessions in return for reform

She may feel her credibility is at stake, according to diplomats in Rangoon.

Diplomats say there is no question of breaking off the talks because Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD are totally committed to the dialogue process. For them it is the only way to bring democratic change to Burma.

For the international community, 18 months of confidence-building contact should have produced more concrete results. Many diplomats believe that Burma's military leaders are simply trying to spin the process out without making any major concessions.

If the generals do not show their commitment to the process, by at least releasing Aung San Suu Kyi as soon as possible, then Rangoon will face increased international isolation and further possible trade sanctions.

Mr Razali has also hinted that if this trip does not produce significant progress, then he may feel it is not worth continuing as the UN special envoy.