Mid-East crisis tests allies

Blair stood shoulder to shoulder with Bush

By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

When Tony Blair meets George Bush at the US president's Texas ranch this weekend, it had been expected that action against Iraq would be top of their agenda.

Now, the growing crisis in the Middle East - and the tricky dilemma it places before Mr Bush - is set to dominate the talks.

There is also deep disquiet that Mr Bush has, so far, appeared reluctant to criticise the Israeli action

In the UK, many of those who have expressed deep concern about any potential attack on Iraq are now pressing Mr Blair to shift the focus towards resolving the Middle East conflict.

There are fears that any action against Iraq would only further inflame Arab states, some of which are already near to being drawn into the Middle East conflict.

Mr Blair wants to use the meeting to ensure the president uses his full influence in the region to seek a settlement.

He is being urged to make that the priority before any thought is given to widening the war against terrorism to include Iraq.

Disquiet

After initially appearing reluctant to criticise the Israeli action, Mr Bush has now pressed Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to withdraw his forces from Palestinian cities.

But calls will continue for the two men to follow through those words and do more to ensure there is an immediate ceasefire.

Mr Blair has been among the president's strongest allies in the war on terrorism and the prime minister's critics in the UK will be watching his response to the situation in the Middle East carefully.

No appetite for action against Saddam

Former US Senator George Mitchell, who drew up a peace plan for the area last year, believes Mr Blair can play a key role should the US make fresh proposals to stop the violence.

And the crisis is one reason why Mr Bush may find Mr Blair less keen to join him with all guns blazing in any action against Iraq just yet.

The prime minister may be reconciled to the fact that he will, ultimately, have to support his ally against Iraq in such a shoot out.

Domestic pressures

Ever since the president suggested he was widening his war against terrorism to include the twin "axis of evil" of Iraq and North Korea, military action against those states has seemed inevitable.

The situation in the Middle East and the prospect of violence spreading in the region has only heightened unease at Westminster

But the demands of the Middle East crisis combined with domestic pressures are too great for Mr Blair to slip into cowboy mode just yet.

Downing Street has always been eager to play down any suggestion that the meeting at the weekend will be a "council of war" over Iraq or that the president is currently looking for military support.

But spokesmen have been equally at pains to underline the prime minister's belief that Saddam and his alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction cannot not be ignored.

Now, the mood music from the government over Iraq has softened, with Foreign Secretary Jack Straw claiming he does not believe US military action is imminent.

Concern over Afghanistan

And the meeting between Mr Bush and Mr Blair is being described merely as an opportunity to "think through the options".

The prime minister knows that with MPs and some cabinet ministers expressing concern about any military action against Saddam Hussein, he needs to tread very carefully.

The situation in the Middle East and the prospect of violence spreading in the region has only heightened unease at Westminster.

That in turn comes amid deep concern that no end is in sight to the military action in Afghanistan and that the goal of bringing Osama Bin Laden to account appears as distant as ever.

In the immediate aftermath of 11 September, Tony Blair was the first international leader to ride to President Bush's side.

As the president issued his "you are either with us or with the terrorists" warning to the world, the prime minister was happy to be pictured shoulder to shoulder with him in the White House.

If there was little dissent then, things are vastly different this time. Their reaction at the weekend to the Middle East crisis will be vital.