An Easter away from political drama

Speculation continues about IRA dedommissioning

By Mark Devenport BBC Northern Ireland political editor

Easter has always had a particular resonance in Ireland.

It provokes memories of the republican uprising in Dublin in 1916 and, more recently, the complex compromise at Stormont in 1998.

By these historic standards Easter 2002 was, politically speaking, pretty dull.

Gerry Adams, David Trimble et al gathered at a sunny Hillsborough Castle for a meeting with the Northern Ireland Secretary John Reid and the Irish Foreign Minister Brian Cowen.

There was none of the drama of Stormont four years ago, nor any of the unseasonably cold weather which accompanied the overnight negotiations which sealed the Belfast Agreement.

However, if the pickings for journalists these days are slim, few would begrudge the citizens of Northern Ireland the chance to enjoy a holiday weekend in the sun.

Gerry Adams: Will not be drawn on arms speculation

The Good Friday Agreement has its trenchant critics.

But only a brief glance at the violence in Israel and Palestine this Easter is required to remind observers of what an alternative Northern Ireland might look like.

The process, however, still has its sticking points.

These days none appears to be more contentious than the question of an amnesty for paramilitaries "on-the-run".

The government has failed to meet its own deadline of 31 March for bringing forward proposals on what it refers to as the "distasteful topic".

The Ulster Unionists have now signed on to an idea initially championed by the Alliance, namely that any returning fugitives should be required to undergo some kind of judicial process.

The idea is that the on-the-run would not have to spend any time in jail, but at least his or her crime would be publicly acknowledged.

From Sinn Fein's point of view the positive publicity associated with decommissioning cannot be harmful

It is hard to imagine returning IRA men being ready to stand trial for offences committed decades ago.

However, some kind of "fast track" legal process might not be entirely out of the question.

Previously, some paramilitary escapees have met prison officials in order to sign a form before returning home.

Speaking on the BBC's Inside Politics, the Sinn Fein President, Gerry Adams, would not be drawn on the logistics, but called for the matter to be resolved as quietly and as quickly as possible.

Polls

Something else Mr Adams refuses to be drawn on, is the timing of a second act of IRA decommissioning.

Both St Patrick's Day and the Easter weekend have come and gone without such a gesture.

But with an Irish election just weeks away a further tranche appears inevitable before voters go to the polls.

From Sinn Fein's point of view the positive publicity associated with decommissioning cannot be harmful.

That said, the Irish Foreign Minister Brian Cowen told Inside Politics that he was not convinced movement on IRA arms would make much difference one way or the other to Sinn Fein's electoral support.

Like his boss Bertie Ahern, Brian Cowen is continuing to rule out Sinn Fein participation in a coalition with Fianna Fail after the vote, which is expected to take place in May.

However, he concedes that a more informal situation, in which Sinn Fein deputies vote for Mr Ahern alongside other independents, is just "a question of mathematics".

And in a land which invented the tallyman and which has seen some finely balanced governments, mathematics, after all, can often prove all important.