Mid-East peace hopes revived

There has been a marked decline in violence

		By Roger Hardy BBC Middle East analyst

Will Anthony Zinni, the US special envoy, return to the Middle East?

That is the question many Arabs and Israelis are asking, as they ponder whether the coming year will be as violent as the last one has been.

General Zinni withdrew from the region after an upsurge in fighting

General Zinni was recalled to Washington in mid-December, and the Bush administration made it clear he would only go back if the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, made a determined attempt to stop attacks against Israelis.

Following his departure, Mr Arafat publicly appealed for an end to the violence - and according to the Israeli army, the number of attacks has dropped significantly in the two weeks since then.

Officials in Washington now say the return of General Zinni is under consideration.

The Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon, is adamant that Mr Arafat has not done nearly enough.

Peace talks could follow a sustained ceasefire

But the defence minister, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer - who last week became the head of the Israeli Labor party - has given his backing to a peace initiative launched by Shimon Peres, the foreign minister, under which a ceasefire would lead to Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state.

The Labor ministers are trying to come up with a policy that is distinct from the hardline position of Mr Sharon, and that would give General Zinni something to work with.

It remains a fragile initiative, however, and no one is entering the new year with much optimism.