Russia angles for post-war gains

Russia has made clear it is on the same side as the US

By BBC Russian affairs analyst Stephen Dalziel

The US President, George Bush, has been fulsome in his praise for and gratitude to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, almost from the moment of the attacks on New York and Washington on 11 September.

Mr Putin was the first to pick up the telephone and call the American leader to offer his country's condolences.

Russia, Mr Putin said, understood what had to be done better than most because Russia has been fighting against terrorism for a number of years in Chechnya.

Moscow has been arming the Northern Alliance

No one doubts the sincerity of Mr Putin's message of condolence. In the days that followed, ordinary Russians flocked to the US Embassy in Moscow to offer their sympathy and lay flowers.

But the Russian president is nothing if not pragmatic. He quickly saw an opportunity, not only to make it clear that Russia was on the same side as the Americans, but also to try to make gains for Russia out of the tense international situation.

For Mr Putin, Chechnya was a good place to start. There has already been less criticism from the West of the Russian military operation there, especially after it was revealed that four of the hijackers of the US planes involved in the attacks on New York and Washington had been in Chechnya.

But that is a limited aim, since the Russian army has been doing virtually what it wanted in Chechnya anyway.

Economic gains

The real gains which the Kremlin wants are economic ones.

Russia wants to become a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), but until now has complained that the terms for its membership are too strict.

In the next few weeks, these could be eased, and no one will be surprised if Russia joins the WTO in 2002.

Moscow would like to see a stable, non-aligned, non-extremist regime in Kabul

Russia also wants to play its oil card. As the world's second largest oil producer, Russia wants more and easier access to world markets.

But Russia also has serious security concerns over the situation in Afghanistan itself.

Despite the break-up of the Soviet Union ten years ago, the former Soviet Central Asian states bordering on Afghanistan - Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan - continue to be seen by Moscow as Russia's soft underbelly.

The boom in drug addiction in post-Soviet Russia has been fuelled by a steady flow of narcotics from Afghanistan through Central Asia. Russian troops guard Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan, under an agreement with Dushanbe dating back to 1992.

Moscow has been fighting "terrorism" in Chechyna for years

But latest estimates suggest that only five to 10% of the drug traffic is intercepted.

The Kremlin's somewhat hopeful - and certainly undefined - wish for any post-conflict settlement concerning Afghanistan itself can be summed up in one word: stability.

Moscow would like to see a stable, non-aligned, non-extremist regime in Kabul, with whom it could establish some sort of diplomatic relations and come to an agreement on policing the trafficking of both drugs and militant Islamic ideas.

Key alliance

On Monday, in a dramatic visit to Dushanbe en route from Shanghai to Moscow, Mr Putin emphasised where Moscow believes the possible answer lies.

By appearing at a press conference alongside the ousted Afghan President, Burhanuddin Rabbani, Mr Putin made it clear that Moscow sees the Northern Alliance as the core of any post-conflict administration.

In the wake of the attacks on America, Russia has admitted officially something the West has suspected for a long time: that Moscow has been arming the Northern Alliance for years.

But given Afghanistan's history over the last 25 years, it is unlikely that Mr Putin believes that a stable regime will come about in Afghanistan simply by allowing the Northern Alliance free rein to take over from the Taleban.

That also helps to explain why, for Mr Putin, cooperation with the US remains a long-term aim both as regards a peace settlement in Afghanistan, and on the wider international stage.