Analysis: Campaign enters twilight phase

The AC-130's psychological value is a key factor

BBC defence correspondent

		By Paul Adams BBC defence correspondent

"When at times you may see a certain levelling-off of activities, other less visible activities may be under way," Victoria Clarke, the US assistant secretary of defence, told journalists on Tuesday.

Activities visible and invisible: this American-led campaign is moving into a twilight phase where we may know much less - and be told much less - about what is really going on.

It is not just operational details that are shrouded in mystery. Allied strategy is also difficult to discern.

Some parts of the operation are highly visible, often with good reason.

Tuesday's deployment of the terrifying AC-130 to attack Taleban targets near Kandahar is perhaps the most graphic example so far.

Known as "Spectre" or "Spooky", depending on which variant is used, the AC-130 is a slow, low-flying gunship capable of delivering a withering assault on troop formations and vehicles.

Pentagon officials do not deny that its psychological value - quite apart from its strategic usefulness - is a key factor in its deployment.

Opportunism and intelligence

But as military planners run out of fixed targets, the mission to locate and destroy Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda network will have to rely on opportunism and an elaborate array of intelligence-gathering methods.

And this is where Operation Enduring Freedom moves into the shadows.

UK officials say the opposition forces are a 'ramshackle group'

Using human intelligence - from small teams of special forces generally thought to be on the ground in Afghanistan to high-tech surveillance and reconnaissance planes flying overhead - the Pentagon hopes to move towards a rapid-response, "targets of opportunity" strategy.

In essence, this means that should a Taleban or al-Qaeda target emerge from hiding, even briefly, American jets - already in the air, waiting for just such an opportunity - will respond within minutes.

For obvious operational reasons, Washington and London want to keep the Taleban and al-Qaeda guessing. They also do not want us to know too much of what is going on.

Veil of secrecy

Reports suggest that the Pentagon has spent millions of dollars securing exclusive rights to commercially available satellite imagery which might enable the media to draw its own conclusions about the progress of the war.

Despite repeated promises, the Ministry of Defence in London has still not discussed "battle damage assessment" in any detail with journalists.

"It's America's show," we're told. "We don't want to say anything before they do."

And if the war is to be fought with the help of special forces, then the customary veil of secrecy that always cloaks such activities makes it very hard to glean an accurate impression of what is going on.

Strategy a mystery

It is not just operational details that are shrouded in mystery. Allied strategy is also difficult to discern.

A good case in point is the situation north of the capital, Kabul, where thousands of Taleban and al-Qaeda fighters face units of the Northern Alliance.

The Northern Alliance have a role to play, but not a long-term role

Defence official

For several days, it appeared that this was one critical point not being targeted by American jets and long-range bombers.

Speculation mounted that Washington and London were reluctant to hand Kabul to the Northern Alliance before UN-brokered political arrangements on the future of Afghanistan were in place.

On Tuesday, Marine Corps Lieutenant General Gregory Newbold told reporters at the Pentagon that the campaign was "striking Taleban military positions around Kabul, including those that protect the capital".

'Ramshackle group'

By Wednesday, there was only limited evidence that this had begun, but British and American officials were still guarded, avoiding the suggestion that supporting the Northern Alliance was a primary allied objective.

"Where our objectives cross with those of the Northern Alliance, [that's] a good thing," said Rear Admiral John Stufflebeem.

At the same time, officials in London describe the anti-Taleban forces as "a pretty ramshackle group", full of "potential fissures," incapable of governing Afghanistan on their own.

"The Northern Alliance have a role to play, but not a long-term role," was how one defence source put it.

It seems likely that Washington is using carefully calibrated air attacks to influence the course of the fighting.

They have been affording the Northern Alliance a helping hand in some places (for example around the key northern city Mazar-e-Sharif, which US planners may be eyeing as a possible forward staging point during the coming winter months), but not giving them undue advantage in others.

It is a subtle tactic, but it could also reflect uncertainty about the way ahead.