IRA arms move may be imminent

Decommissioning - debated on the streets

For years the peace process has been plagued by the issue of arms decommissioning.

BBC NI chief security correspondent Brian Rowan considers whether we are close to a breakthrough on this issue and if the political institutions can be saved.

He has waited and waited and waited and waited - a wait that has now stretched beyond four years.

But if security assessments prove correct, that waiting may soon come to an end.

John de Chastelain's Independent International Commission on Decommissioning began its work on 24 September 1997.

In the commission alongside the Canadian general, is a Finnish brigadier, Tauno Nieminen, and American Andrew Sens, a former high-ranking official in the US State Department.

These three men know the method the IRA has chosen to put arms "completely and verifiably beyond use" and their wait now is for a signal that that process is about to begin.

Security sources, who in the past have been sceptical, are now telling me that the IRA leadership is closer than ever before to taking that step.

Will move save process?

The key questions are when and will it be enough to save the peace process?

John de Chastelain has been waiting for IRA move for four years

The clock is ticking and soon Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble is expected to announce the formal resignations of his ministers who hold positions in Northern Ireland's power-sharing executive.

On the heels of that move, the two DUP ministers will also resign and an executive without unionists will be unworkable.

It all means the new political institutions are facing collapse within a fortnight.

The IRA has always said it will not respond to British or unionist deadlines or ultimatums and security sources are not confident about a move within this tight time frame, although they stop short of completely ruling it out.

IRA Convention

Those same security sources believe the IRA will only move with the approval of a so-called Army Convention - a meeting at which all parts of the organisation are represented.

IRA will hold Convention to make final decision

Such meetings happen very rarely - their purpose is to rule on matters of major importance.

A decision to put arms "completely and verifiably beyond use" would fall within that category.

Before a convention takes place there are smaller IRA meetings where delegates are chosen to attend.

At time of writing, there is no evidence to suggest that that process has begun within the republican organisation, but security sources believe a convention will take place and that it could happen soon.

If it does, security sources believe the IRA leadership - its seven-man Army Council - will win a vote allowing it to move on the arms issue.

There is also speculation that a senior west Belfast republican - a former prisoner who supports the Adams-McGuinness peace strategy - has recently taken up a position on the Army Council.

It is a move that is being assessed as potentially positive in terms of the internal republican debate on the arms issue.

General has primary role

If the convention happens and if the IRA moves that is when de Chastelain's long wait ends.

Martti Ahtisaari carried out IRA arms dumps inspection

He has never seen an IRA arms dump, but if his commission is to verify an act of decommissioning he will insist on being there when it happens.

In the past, international inspectors Cyril Ramaphosa and Martti Ahtisaari have reported to de Chastelain that they have examined a number of IRA arms dumps, thought to be two.

They have told him that those dumps contain a significant amount of military material, that it is safely stored and cannot be moved without their detection.

What Cyril Ramaphosa and Martti Ahtissari have been part of is a confidence building process, but de Chastelain's primary role is decommissioning and when it comes to it he wants to take charge.

That will mean being there when weapons are put beyond use and taking an inventory which will not be made public.

Arms beyond use

The commission will also want to be confident that what it has witnessed renders weapons permanently unusable or permanently inaccessible.

International inspector Cyril Ramaphosa saw IRA dumps

Last month, the IRA said it would "intensify" its engagement with the de Chastelain commission.

Sources say the commission is "fully engaged" with the IRA, but there is still no information to suggest that de Chastelain has knowledge of when an "event" is going to take place.

That is not surprising. If the IRA decides to move, de Chastelain is unlikely to be told until the last moment.

Caution urged

Republicans are aware of the security assessments and they are urging "caution".

David Trimble has delayed ministerial withdrawals

That is not to suggest that they are ruling out such a development on arms. But confirmation of any such move will not come until after the event. That is the way the IRA works.

What is known at this time is that in the background, senior republicans are in contact with the British, Irish and American Governments and a small number of unionists are aware of what is going on.

This may explain why David Trimble has not already announced the formal resignations of his ministers.

One source spoke of negotiations in which "a range of players will have roles to play".

Those negotiations, I'm told, involve discussions on demilitarisation, policing, weapons and the political institutions - and how those talks go will determine what the IRA does or does not do.

Demilitarisation

On one issue, demilitarisation, republicans will be pushing for more than was offered at the Weston Park talks during the summer, although there is nothing as yet to suggest an advance.

But in political and security circles here there is a sense of a "game on".

What if that "game" produces a result? If it does, then one republican spoke to me of the possibility of something "unheard of in republican ideology" - something "massive".

That is one view of what arms beyond use would mean. And if it is as good as it sounds then de Chastelain's wait will have been worthwhile.