Cuba considers life after Castro

The president and designated successor, his brother Raul

By Daniel Schweimler in Havana

When Cuban President Fidel Castro, fainted during a public appearance a few weeks ago, the Cuban people saw for the first time a real crack in his image of invincibility.

Now, as he celebrates his 75th birthday on Monday, both his supporters and his enemies have been planning for the future - a future when the bearded revolutionary will not be at the helm of the country he has led for 42 years.

Nothing will change ... the Cuban revolution is more than the work of one man

Raul Castro

"I'm alright," Mr Castro said after he returned to the podium after fainting, "I'm alright, don't worry."

The official line in Havana is that he had been speaking in the scorching Cuban sun for two hours, and had not slept the previous night. It could have happened to anyone of his age in those circumstances.

But the crowd was visibly shaken. Some cried, some chanted his name.

Those few minutes broadcast live on Cuban television opened the doors to speculation about a subject many either could not or would not talk about before.

'Love him or hate him'

Fidel Castro is the only leader most Cubans have ever known. Love him or hate him, many find it difficult to imagine life without Fidel. But they have now started to think and talk about the future.

With the passing of time we've come to realise that now [the revolution] is something false

Cuban woman

"He's a man dedicated to his work too much, because he sleeps very little, trying to ensure that the things he's achieved in the revolution last and last for ever," says one woman.

Another man adds: "I think the first days will be pretty violent. A lot of problems have been repressed for a long time. There's a lot of hate between people; political hatred, religious hatred, ethnic hatred."

Others are more cynical. "There are times when I think that the revolution, for which so many people gave so much, was something clean, something transparent," says another woman.

"But with the passing of time we've come to realise that now it's something false," she says.

Successor

Officially the next in line is President Castro's younger brother Raul, the head of the armed forces.

The Cuban leader has refuted suggestions of poor health

No one for the Cuban Government was available to be interviewed about what happens after Fidel, but Raul has spoken recently for the first time about it.

"Nothing will change," he said. "The Cuban revolution is more than the work of one man, and the foundations are in place for the socialist revolution to continue indefinitely."

Opposition in Cuba is illegal, but a small number of individuals and fragmented opposition groups are allowed to operate.

One of the most out spoken critics of the current government is Oswaldo Paya of the Christian Liberation Movement.

"What's now happening in Cuba will shape what happens in the future, whether there's an outbreak of violence, whether another oligarchy will be installed, which will bring with it massive social inequalities," he says.

The future, says Mr Paya, depends on "whether we can initiate a process of change, that is gradual, peaceful and radical."

Celebration

The biggest group lobbying for change in Cuba is the large Cuban-American community in Miami.

Thousands of Cubans have made the perilous journey to the US

The hundreds of thousands who fled the Communist island over the past 42 years, they have long planned for the day when Fidel Castro dies.

For them, says Joe Garcia of the Cuban-American National Foundation, Castro's death will be a cause for celebration.

"There are literally thousands upon thousands of long term political prisoners that walk the street in Miami, who were victimised by Castro," he says.

"Obviously families are here, and families here have to send thousands upon thousands of dollars to Cuba to keep their families alive ... I think that Castro's disappearance would be just a huge weight lifted," he says.

The Cuban-American community, strong supporters of President George W Bush, has an influential voice in Washington. Mr Garcia says the way Washington and Miami react to change in Cuba will be vitally important.

Free trade

"It could bode very well for Cuba, when Cuba is a free society, these people are able to trade and do business in return, bring some of the benefits of the modern society to Cuba ... especially when it's 90 miles away from the most industrialised nation in the world," he says.

Cuban Americans say the country's poor will be better off post Castro

Cuba continues to present an image to the world of a fun-loving, friendly island where, despite the odds, the health care and education systems are better than in most of the developing world, and as good as in many developed countries.

Tourists flock to Cuba, attracted by the salsa, the sun and the sand. Fidel Castro adds a touch of revolutionary glamour, but the Cuban authorities, the opposition and the Cuban exile community, are now planning for a future after his inevitable death.

But for now they can only speculate about what life after Fidel might bring.