Suspension - lesser of two evils?

BBC Northern Ireland political correspondent Mark Simpson explains why the government chose suspension of Stormont rather than elections.

The short-term suspension of the Assembly was regarded by the Government as the 'lesser of two evils'.

It was not seen as a positive option, but the one which would cause the least damage.

However, damage will be done. The stability - and credibility - of the Assembly is undermined every time a suspension is called, and now there have been two in a period of only eighteen months.

But many believe the Government had no viable alternative.

Suspension vs election

One insider said: "Basically, the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State were faced with a stark choice - suspension or election. It was bit like jumping out of a window and having to choose between the 19th floor and the 20th floor.

"In the end, they went for the best soft-landing possible - a limited suspension."

The one-day break in devolution allows the parties at the Assembly six more weeks to elect a First and Deputy First Minister.

If the Secretary of State John Reid had not stepped in on Friday and ordered a short suspension, then a fresh Assembly election would have been called.

Election concerns

The problem with an election, as far as the Government was concerned, was that it was too big of a gamble.

There were fears that the Ulster Unionist Party would reject the election idea, withdraw their ministers from the Stormont Executive and force the Government into a position where it had to suspend the Assembly indefinitely.

The upshot of that would have been a political process even more bruised and battered than it is at the moment.

However, a fresh election was under very serious consideration. Indeed, at one stage, it was said to be the Prime Minister's preferred course of action.

Blair; Fully in touch despite being on family holiday

Although Mr Blair was in Mexico on holiday when the final decision was being made, he was in regular contact with the Secretary of State.

Their telephone conversations were hampered by the time-difference between central America and western Europe, but the two men did keep in close touch.

Apparently, Mr Blair was in a swimming pool when one of the telephone calls came through but he still agreed to take the call.

It was not until lunchtime on Friday that the Secretary of State finally made up his mind about what he was going to do.

In the end, he decided that a short-term suspension was the 'least-worst' option and he was convinced that this was the right thing to do by the SDLP leadership.

In a series of private meetings on Thursday night, John Hume's party is believed to have advised both the British and Irish governments that the only way to protect the progress made in recent months was a one-day suspension, or a 'commercial break' suspension as one SDLP figure described it.

Amid the fall-out from the latest developments, the Government is hoping that the parties' reaction to the so-called commercial break is not to switch off.

If that happens, then in six weeks time Dr Reid will be faced with exactly the same conundrum - suspension or election.

By that stage, Tony Blair would be back from holiday. Dr Reid would therefore have a less expensive phone-bill but an even tougher decision.