Parties talk tough on deal

The pro-Agreement parties will soon learn how the British and Irish Governments aim to break the political deadlock.

As BBC NI political correspondent Martina Purdy writes, only when the parties have the proposals will the speculation about what is being offered end.

"Wait and see," has become the answer for journalists asking if the latest package designed to end the Northern Ireland political stalemate will work.

It is the one million pound question. And one senior SDLP source has ventured the chances are probably still 50/50.

Anticipation surrounding the proposals is reminiscent of the last days of negotiations leading up to the Good Friday Agreement, back in April 1998.

In recent days, spin and counter-spin has indicated the latest package may already be doomed

Martina Purdy

In the countdown to what has been dubbed that "long Good Friday", there were times when it appeared one side or the other was going to reject the deal.

In recent days, spin and counter-spin has indicated the latest package may already be doomed.

For example, Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey dismissed the significance of a proposal that would ensure new policing recruits would not be trained in plastic bullets.

The remarks could have been seen as an indicator that republicans were not going to buy into the deal.

Other hints came in a briefing from a senior Sinn Fein source who suggested what was known of the package so far was not going to meet republican needs on policing.

IRA arms

On the other side of the house, the Ulster Unionist Party has issued several warnings - often at regular intervals.

For example, Sir Reg Empey said on Tuesday that his party would not be prepared to continue power-sharing with Sinn Fein if IRA weapons were not put beyond use.

Sir Reg: Decommissioning must be dealt with

And, also speaking for the party, the Ulster Unionist Assembly member said if the speculation was accurate about the policing issue, his party would be "leaving" the "take it or leave it package".

This was followed up by another comment, this time from Dermot Nesbitt, the UUP junior minister, who said decommissioning would be the "litmus test" on his party's response to the Agreement.

The bottom line of course is that all of the remarks by the politicians so far must be seen as a negotiating position.

"Don't get caught up in the spin," one senior Dublin source warned.

Sinn Fein expressed dissatisfaction with the Good Friday Agreement almost down to the last minute of negotiations, as did Ulster Unionists.

Little time to decide

And so the guessing game is probably futile until the full package is unveiled, and parties have a chance to brief their grassroots.

There is little time however for parties to make up their minds - if the current Executive and Assembly is to be sustained.

By 12 August, the posts of first and deputy first minister must be filled. That requires more than 50% of unionists and 50% of nationalists in the Assembly to agree.

That will only happen if the package proves acceptable to unionists on the decommissioning issue.

Unionists have warned that weapons must be put beyond use by the IRA before a return to government with Sinn Fein. Is this possible?

Decommissioning per se is essentially outside the government's direct control - and the package is expected to suggest the issue be dealt with by the head of the arms commission, General John de Chastelain.

Delay for amendments

If unionists stick to this position, then republicans would have to move fairly quickly to accept the deal, and make a move on arms.

Even assuming that republicans get what they are demanding on policing - guarantees that Patten's proposals on policing will be implemented and the actual legislative amendments in writing - is there sufficient trust for the IRA to respond in the next two weeks?

For example, it will be several months before the amendments could be put before Parliament.

Would the IRA make a move now and risk the government "reneging" on the proposed amendments? On the other hand, if republicans only acted on absolute certainties, Sinn Fein would not have signed up to the Good Friday Agreement.

The challenges facing the SDLP cannot be forgotten either.

Tactical suspension is not an option under consideration

Government sources

If Sinn Fein rejects policing, the SDLP will have to decide whether the package meets their needs on policing.

Will the SDLP risk signing up to policing without Sinn Fein, possibly leaving it politically vulnerable in the face of a republican hardline?

Those advocating such a move would argue that if the policing experiment works, then it will be Sinn Fein having to follow the SDLP lead, as "Johnny come latelies".

Stakes are high

Whatever the outcome, the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, summed up the current situation best when he said that the stakes couldn't be higher.

In the days ahead, the Ulster Unionists, Sinn Fein and the SDLP face decisions that could not only change their own change their political fortunes, but the course of history.

If the deal is rejected by one side or another, the two governments will have to decide how to proceed.

For example, the Secretary of State, John Reid, could dissolve the assembly and call an election. Or he could operate a "tactical suspension."

That would involve suspending the assembly for one day. That would have the effect of giving the Assembly another six weeks to find a first and deputy first minister, thereby buying more time for negotiations.

But so far sources in Dublin and London are insisting this is not an option under consideration.