A package of possibilities?

Republicans want military posts removed

The British and Irish Governments are about to deliver a paper aimed at breaking the deadlock in Northern Ireland's stalled peace process. BBC Northern Ireland's chief security correspondent Brian Rowan outlines what is likely to be on offer.

It's being viewed very much as a make-or-break document - one that needs to be able to persuade unionists that the issue of arms decommissioning is finally going to be dealt with.

The document is also one that republicans will read to see if it meets the IRA's context for putting arms beyond use.

It will deal with four issues:

• Policing
• Demilitarisation
• Decommissioning
• The political institutions

The detail on policing change is likely to be outlined in an updated Patten Implementation Plan.

Before it declares its hand, the IRA will want to see what is being delivered on police reform and on the scaling down of security and what guarantees are given to ensure that in future, the political institutions will function as intended.

Demilitarisation

The package is understood to include plans to remove an army observation post in Newtownhamilton - a post that watches over a security base and a helicopter landing pad there.

Some army watch towers have already been dismantled

An army base would close in Magherafelt and two of the hilltop watchtowers in south Armagh would be demolished.

The dozen or so others would be prioritised for future removal and the package may also give a vision of the future if the terrorist threat was to diminish - a vision of how the security presence would be reduced.

Policing

Sources say the package will say that an "operational decision" will be taken next April on the future of the full-time RUC reserve. Patten said it should go.

Sinn Fein feels the Police Act does not follow reform recommendations

There were once over 3,000 officers in its ranks but today that figure has already been reduced by close to 900.

Republicans have demanded that ex-prisoners should be allowed to sit on new district policing partnership boards, which will be established in each of Northern Ireland's council areas.

The government is said to be considering legislation to allow for this and is also considering giving the four sub committees of the district boards in Belfast the same powers as other boards.

Nationalists had complained that the role of these committees had been diluted in the Police Act.

On choosing the symbols and badge of the new Police Service, this will be referred to the 19-member Policing Board.

And if there is no agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary is expected to decide in line with Patten's recommendation that: "The Northern Ireland Police Service should adopt a new badge and symbols which are entirely free from any association with either the British or Irish states."

Flag flying

On the Union Flag, Patten said it "should no longer be flown from police buildings."

Republicans want plastic bullets to be banned in NI

And a source with knowledge of the recent negotiations told me: "Ultimately it's pretty clear that Patten will be implemented on this issue."

How this will emerge and when is not yet clear.

On another issue, recruits to the new police service will not be trained to fire plastic bullets for several years by which time it is hoped an alternative means of dealing with riot situations will have been found.

Sources say the clear intention is that recruits to the new service will never fire baton rounds.

And there will be an offer of legislative change around the issue of the powers of the Policing Board.

In this there is much for unionists to swallow and they have not liked what has emerged on the likely detail of the package.

But republicans are pushing for more and they want proof that the government plans to do what Patten asked of them.

So they want to see the text for amending legislation and this will be key to the position Sinn Fein takes on the overall policing package.

"The securocrats took the 175 recommendations (in Patten) and on each recommendation they tore a piece out of it," a senior Sinn Fein source told me.

He said Sinn Fein was looking for legislative change to bring the Police Act into line with Patten: "I have no faith that we have got to that point," he told me.

Murder inquiries

On inquiries into controversial killings, the package will propose that an international judge review a number of cases and make recommendations and the paper is expected to contain the following paragraph:"In the event that the judicial figure recommends a public inquiry in any case, the relevant government will act on that recommendation."

But republicans want this hardened up and want guarantees that public judicial inquiries will be held.

On the overall package, unionists think that too much has been offered already and they still don't know what the IRA intends to do with its arms.

Illegal arms

The paper the governments will produce is expected to emphasise the importance of questions raised by General John de Chastelain's decommissioning body some months ago.

Moves on arms are the hardest to predict

What is meant by arms beyond use? When will it happen? What will be the role of the commission in that process?

Some are also hoping that the IRA might do something on arms to ease unionist concerns.

Republicans are not signalling a move but other sources are not ruling out "something".

That "something" would need to be pretty impressive if unionists are to be persuaded to buy into the package - a package many believe is only workable in the context of an IRA move.