Japan's election confusion

Koizumi pledged to reform the political process

By Japan analyst David Powers

Pity the poor Japanese voter as he or she struggles out to the polls on Sunday - if they can manage to summon up the strength, that is.

Japanese summers are hot and humid at the best of times, but this week has seen all records broken. At daybreak on Wednesday, the lowest temperature was a baking 29 degrees in Tokyo - the highest low ever.

The voting system is difficult to fathom

Sunday's election is for half the seats in the upper house of parliament, something that rarely excites much enthusiasm.

Put that together with the heat and the added confusion of a new voting system, and it is tempting to think few people care about the likely outcome. But they do.

Recession

The Japanese economy has been struggling for the past decade. Unemployment - although low by western standards - is at its highest; and worse is to come as companies restructure.

Fujitsu, the electronics giant, is offering everyone over 45 early retirement, just to sort out its problems. The Tokyo Stock Exchange crashed to its lowest since 1985 earlier in the week. The bad news just keeps on coming.

Promising the voters pain would be political suicide in most countries, but Koizumi's message has struck a chord

So are the Japanese going to throw out the government responsible for their country's problems? Not a bit of it, according to all the opinion polls.

For a start, the government has a solid majority in the more powerful lower house. So, in that respect, the outcome of Sunday's poll will have little effect.

Still, it's being regarded as an important vote of confidence - mainly in one man, the new Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

Promising pain

Mr Koizumi was propelled to power in April following a revolt among rank and file members of the LDP, the party that has governed Japan almost without a break since 1955.

He has promised reform - painful reform - and no protection of "sacred cows". Promising the voters pain would be political suicide in most countries, but Mr Koizumi's good looks, enthusiasm and the freshness of his message have all struck a chord.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange is at its lowest since the 1980s

What Mr Koizumi says is music to the ears of most Japanese voters, who want to see an end to bloated bureaucracy, corruption and endless spending on public works that benefit only the construction companies that are paid to build them.

As a result, both he and the LDP are riding high in the polls. And that's where the voters' dilemma begins.

Throughout its history, the LDP has always been a loose coalition of politicians brought together through personal allegiances rather than policies.

So, although Mr Koizumi and his reform message are all the rage with the voters, lurking within his party are large numbers of MPs still wedded to the old ways, and determined to block him at every turn.

Voting minefield

So what does a vote for the LDP mean? Is it a vote for Mr Koizumi and reform, or is it a vote for "no change"?

Each voter has two ballot papers - one to elect their local constituency MP, and another to fill national seats on the basis of proportional representation.

In theory, if a personality gets four times as many votes as they need for a seat in parliament, another three unknown candidates will be elected on his or her coat tails

Judging the intentions of local candidates may not be too difficult, but voters have no idea what they will be letting themselves in for when it comes to the second ballot.

The situation has been further confused by a change to the voting system, which means they can allocate their second ballot either to a party or to an individual.

Many of the LDP's candidates for the national seats are well-known TV personalities, and the system has been designed so that any votes in excess of what they need to get elected are automatically redistributed to the rest of the party.

So in theory, if a personality gets four times as many votes as they need for a seat in parliament, another three unknown candidates will be elected on his or her coat tails.

The LDP dreamed up this scheme before Mr Koizumi came to power, and it was roundly condemned as undemocratic by the opposition. Nevertheless, the opposition has had to find its own celebrities to compete.

Learning from Labour

Mr Koizumi, who spent two years studying in London in the late 1960s, acknowledges learning much of his political tradecraft from Britain.

One trick he has picked up from Tony Blair's Labour Party is to adopt many of his political opponents' policies, and present them more skilfully.

Koizumi pledged to reform the political process

More significantly, though, he knows he faces a similar situation to John Major, who once famously complained about "bastards" undermining him from within his own party.

Perhaps learning from Mr Major's experience, he's already declared that he's willing to tie up with the opposition to get his reforms through. Failing that, he is threatened to call a general election for the whole of the more powerful lower house.

If that happens, maybe Japanese voters will get a chance to vote for what they really want. And hopefully the weather will be a little cooler.