Analysis: Condoleezza's Moscow mission

Condoleezza Rice in Moscow for defence consultations

By BBC News Online's Stephen Mulvey

US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice is likely to wow Russian officials and journalists with her combination of sharp thinking and glamorous looks.

However, she has arrived in Moscow at a time when a number of Russian analysts think they have detected signs of a possible Kremlin capitulation on US plans for missile defence, so it is unlikely that all reactions will be positive.

We don't see the need for a treaty regime here. We would really rather do something that looks more like defence planning talks

Condoleezza Rice

She is there to hold consultations with the Russian side on the "new security framework" that Presidents Putin and Bush agreed should be the subject of an "extensive dialogue" at their first meeting in Ljubljana in June.

In particular, as Mr Bush said in Genoa, her brief is to answer questions about the new US thinking on security, and to agree on a timetable for discussions at a higher level, between the two countries' foreign and defence ministers.

Defence planning

Both sides have made it clear that they are not talking about "negotiations" either on missile defence or further cuts in strategic arsenals, which the two leaders agreed in Genoa should be discussed in tandem.

Ms Rice told journalists in Genoa that the US was not looking for a new treaty, even in the long term.

Mr Putin: US proposals will be regarded positively

"It is strongly our belief that the arms control treaties of the past between the United States and the Soviet Union reflected a highly abnormal relationship between the two adversaries, where, frankly, the only thing on which they could agree and co-operate was to keep each other from annihilation," she said.

"So we don't see the need for a treaty regime here. We would really rather do something that looks more like defence planning talks."

Nonetheless, she added that the form the understanding with Russia would take was still "up in the air" - there has been some speculation that Moscow wants to pin Washington down more than it would like.

Timeframe

The key challenge for the US side is likely to be maintaining the tempo of these talks.

As long as Russian officials remain remotely sceptical about missile defence, their instinct will be to drag the talks out and lead them into a stalemate.

Mr Bush wants a limited amount of time for talks

Mr Bush, meanwhile, has indicated that he is only prepared to give them a limited amount of time.

The mood music generated by the meetings at Ljubljana and Genoa, however, is far better than anyone could have expected, and there have been hints that rather more has been achieved than either side has publicised.

Mr Bush said this week that he appreciated Mr Putin's willingness to "think differently about how to make the world more peaceful".

He added that their discussions on redefining the strategic framework had been "very meaningful".

Positive approach

Mr Putin, meanwhile, said Mr Bush's proposals would be studied in Moscow, adding: "I can already say that they will be viewed in a positive light."

He also underlined that Russia's talk of retaliation against the US missile defence programme - for example by scrapping earlier arms control agreements and putting multiple warheads on missiles - only applied if Washington withdrew from the ABM treaty unilaterally.

So perhaps, he added intriguingly, there would now be no need for retaliation.

However, sceptics point out that by agreeing to talks, neither side has anything to lose - and that on the public relations front, they can only gain from appearing friendly and co-operative.

How serious they are about reaching agreement will only become clear with the passage of time.

It is likely that the officials will be more tight-lipped than the presidents themselves, and they are not due to meet again for a few months.