Crunch time for trade talks

Europe is particularly enthusiastic about having a wide ranging round

By the BBC's economics correspondent Andrew Walker

Will the World Trade Organisation launch a new round of trade liberalisation negotiations at its meeting in November in Doha, Qatar?

The rich countries certainly hope so, and the most powerful of them, the G7, said as much when their leaders met in Genoa. .

The organisation's Director General, Mike Moore, is due to make an assessment of whether it is feasible - what he calls a 'reality check' - at the end of July.

It is understandable that he should want to do that. The last time the WTO tried to launch a new round, was at the previous ministerial meeting in Seattle in 1999. It was a humiliating failure.

Demonstrations which ensured that the international media were watching closely

The WTO's member countries could not agree on the negotiating agenda for a round.

The failure was all the more public because of the massive anti-WTO demonstrations which ensured that the international media were watching closely.

Mike Moore does not want a repeat. He wants to ensure that the WTO's members go into the Doha meeting with realistic expectations about what they are likely to achieve.

New trade round

One fundamental difference remains from Seattle.

The rich countries want a new trade round. The developing countries are much more sceptical. They have other priorities, although most would probably accept a round if it had the right agenda.

For the developing world, there are more pressing issues concerning previous WTO agreements.

Together they are labelled 'implementation'. There is a whole raft of concerns. For some governments there is an issue just about having the capacity - the civil servants with the right skills for example - to implement complex agreements.

Intellectual property - such as patents, and copyright - is another bugbear. The issue has become politically charged in relation to medicines and issues of the cost of drugs still under patent that can treat diseases such as HIV/AIDS that are serious public health problems in the developing countries.

But there are wider concerns about the intellectual property rules obstructing technology transfer for example.

Meeting in Zanzibar this week, many of the world's poorest developing countries have adopted a cautious approach to endorsing a new trade round.

Dumping

Developing countries are also very concerned about an arcane set of rules about what is called dumping - when companies sell goods abroad for less than it costs to produce them.

The WTO allows countries to impose duties when they think they are victims of unfair dumping.

Many developing countries think this is abused to provide protection for rich countries' industry. They are particularly concerned about textiles and clothing, which are important for many in the third world..

The rich countries are having to phase out restrictions on imports of these goods, and might resort to a barrage of anti-dumping cases instead, or so developing countries fear.

The United States is by far the biggest user of anti-dumping provisions.

And this week the EU and nine other countries went to the World Trade Organisation to launch a formal complaint about US dumping law.

Wide-ranging agenda

The rich countries want more negotiations on reducing tariffs. They also want to make more of environmental issues in the WTO.

Some developing countries are very suspicious that that might be used against them as a cover for 'green protectionism' - using environmental concerns as an excuse for restricting imports.

The rich countries also want to make more of the negotiations already taking place on services. That is their economic strength and they see more opportunities to export services if WTO deals can sweep away restrictions.

The European Union is keen to have a round discuss competition policy - rules against monopolies and restrictive business practices.

The lack of such regulation can make it harder for imported to get into new markets.

Europe is particularly enthusiastic about having a wide ranging round, probably to divert attention from the cuts in farm support it will have to make, which will infuriate European farmers.

Talks about talks

Reconciling all these concerns will be quite a task. And it is not as if they are negotiating real agreements to open markets.

All they are trying to agree is an agenda of what to talk about. If there is a round launched in Doha, it will take years to complete.

If it happens, Mike Moore is convinced it will be real benefit for the world economy.

Eliminating all remaining trade restrictions would be like adding two economies the size of China to the world, he says.

Even if there is a new round, it won't be that far reaching - all the same Mike Moore thinks it could make a real difference.