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Monday, 23 July, 2001, 16:02 GMT 17:02 UK
Missile defence optimism fades
Vladimir Putin and George Bush
No breakthrough: But progress was made says Putin (left)
President Bush has insisted that US plans for a missile defence system will eventually go ahead regardless of Russian objections - pouring cold water on reports of a softening of US position on the issue.

Mr Bush and Russia's President Putin agreed on Sunday to link the issue of missile defence with talks on strategic arms reduction - sparking hopes of a breakthrough in the missile defence row.


Time is of the essence... if we can't reach agreement we're going to implement

President Bush
But Mr Putin has also moved to dampen enthusiasm over the Genoa meeting. He said it had made "considerable progress" but was not a breakthrough.

The US wants to renegotiate the 1972 Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty - which imposes strict limits on the development of missile defence systems - so it can press ahead with its new project.

Russia is strongly opposed, and has warned of a new arms race if the treaty is breached.

In comments in Italy on Monday, Mr Bush made clear that the US position on missile defence had not shifted - and that the project would eventually go ahead, with or without Russian backing.


We confirmed our adherence to the ABM treaty as the cornerstone of strategic stability

Vladimir Putin
"I can understand why Putin wants time and I'm going to give him some time," Mr Bush told a news conference.

"I have told President Putin that time matters that I want to reach an accord sooner rather later, that I'm interested in getting something done with him."

But Mr Bush warned: "Time is of the essence... if we can't reach agreement we're going to implement. Make no mistake about it, I think it's important to move beyond the ABM treaty."

George Bush and Vladimir Putin
Nuclear threshold: Deep cuts could be agreed
The two presidents agreed, at a meeting in Slovenia in June, to start an "extensive dialogue" touching on matters including a "new security framework".

Mr Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, will travel to Moscow on Tuesday to begin discussions on strategic issues.

The question of further cuts in strategic arms has been on the US-Russian talks agenda since 1997 - though more recently President Bush had suggested that the US would make unilateral reductions.

Russian reaction

Russian analysts were divided on Monday about the significance of the Genoa agreement.


Russia does not want a deal and is not ready for compromise

Russian defence specialist Pavel Felgenhauer

The daily Vedomosti said it showed that Russia was prepared to agree with US missile defence in exchange for cuts the US nuclear arsenal.

However, defence specialist Pavel Felgenhauer told the BBC that Mr Putin had agreed only to "consultations" not "negotiations".

"Russia does not want to negotiate a deal and is not ready for a compromise," he said.

"The Kremlin is manoeuvring itself into a position where no matter what the US does it will be seen by many in the world as doing the wrong thing."

Amending ABM

Mr Putin has often warned that if the US breaches the ABM Treaty, Russia will tear up all other arms-control agreements, and he said on Sunday that that remained an option.

"We confirmed our adherence to the ABM treaty as the cornerstone of strategic stability," he said on Monday.

Start deals
Start 1 (1991): Arsenals cut to 6,000 warheads
Start 2 (1993): Arsenals cut to between 3,000 and 3,500 warheads
Start 3 (projected): Arsenals to be cut to between 2,000 and 2,500 warheads
Russian officials have given a number of hints in recent weeks that they are prepared to negotiate changes to the treaty.

Mr Putin's adviser on strategic issues, former Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev, was reported to have hinted last week that negotiations on a new ABM treaty could begin soon.

The Russian army's head of international co-operation, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov - a renowned hawk - said last month that Moscow was open to possible amendments.

In 1997, then US President Bill Clinton and Russian President Boris Yeltsin agreed in principle that a follow-up to the Start 2 treaty should drop the numbers to 2,000 or 2,500. Mr Putin has suggested 1,500 warheads each would be adequate.

 WATCH/LISTEN
 ON THIS STORY
US President George W Bush
"It is important to discard the old cold war mentality"
UK defence analyst Paul Beaver
"Putin is aware of the politics, but also the industrial implications"
Russian defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer
"Kremlin sources said before the meeting: 'We will agree to consultations, never negotiations'"
Jack Mendelsohn of the Arms Control Association
"Normally over the last 30 years there has been a link between offensive and defensive systems"
See also:

22 Jul 01 | Europe
Bush gives ground on arms deal
29 Jun 01 | Europe
Russia 'open' to ABM changes
16 Jun 01 | Europe
Bush and Putin seek stronger ties
15 Jul 01 | Americas
Russia condemns US missile test
15 Jun 01 | Asia-Pacific
Shanghai summit backs ABM Treaty
14 Mar 01 | Asia-Pacific
China warns against US missile defence
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