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US President George W Bush
"It is important to discard the old cold war mentality"
 real 56k

UK defence analyst Paul Beaver
"Putin is aware of the politics, but also the industrial implications"
 real 28k

Russian defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer
"Kremlin sources said before the meeting: 'We will agree to consultations, never negotiations'"
 real 28k

Jack Mendelsohn of the Arms Control Association
"Normally over the last 30 years there has been a link between offensive and defensive systems"
 real 28k

Monday, 23 July, 2001, 13:03 GMT 14:03 UK
'No breakthrough' on missile shield
Vladimir Putin and George Bush
No breakthrough: But progress was made says Putin (left)
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said there was no breakthrough on US plans for missile defence in his talks with President Bush in Genoa.


Russia does not want a deal and is not ready for compromise

Russian defence specialist Pavel Felgenhauer
"At the same time, there was considerable progress," he told a meeting of top cabinet officials, without giving details.

The two presidents said on Sunday they had agreed to link the issue of missile defence with talks on strategic arms reduction.

Mr Bush also said the US did not want to unilaterally abrogate the 1972 Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, which imposes strict limits on the development of missile defence systems.

This was widely viewed as a significant concession by President Bush to Russian objections to US plans for missile defence.

Arms cuts

The US has previously insisted that it will go ahead with its missile defence plans regardless of foreign opposition, and that it will violate the ABM treaty if Russia does not quickly agree to changes.


We confirmed our adherence to the ABM treaty as the cornerstone of strategic stability

Vladimir Putin
However, the two leaders had already agreed, at a meeting in Slovenia in June, to start an "extensive dialogue" touching on matters including a "new security framework".

The question of further cuts in strategic arms has been on the US-Russian talks agenda for some years - though more recently President Bush had suggested that the US would make unilateral reductions.

Russian reaction

Russian analysts were divided on Monday about the significance of the Genoa agreement.

George Bush and Vladimir Putin
Nuclear threshold: Deep cuts could be agreed
The daily Vedomosti said it showed that Russia was prepared to agree with US missile defence in exchange for cuts the US nuclear arsenal.

However, defence specialist Pavel Felgenhauer told the BBC that Mr Putin had agreed only to "consultations" not "negotiations".

"Russia does not want to negotiate a deal and is not ready for a compromise," he said.

"The Kremlin is manoeuvring itself into a position where no matter what the US does it will be seen by many in the world as doing the wrong thing."

Amending ABM

Mr Putin has often warned that if the US breaches the ABM Treaty, Russia will tear up all other arms-control agreements, and he said on Sunday that that remained an option.

"We confirmed our adherence to the ABM treaty as the cornerstone of strategic stability," he said on Monday.

Start deals
Start I (1991): Arsenals cut to 6,000 warheads
Start 2 (1993): Arsenals cut to between 3,000 and 3,500 warheads
Start 3 (unfinished): Arsenals to be cut to between 2,000 and 2,500 warheads
Russian officials have given a number of hints in recent weeks that they are prepared to negotiate changes to the treaty.

Mr Putin's advisor on strategic issues, former Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev, was reported to have hinted last week that negotiations on a new ABM treaty could begin soon.

The Russian army's head of international co-operation, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov - a renowned hawk - said last month that Moscow was open to possible amendments.

Mr Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, will travel to Moscow on Tuesday to begin discussions on strategic issues.

In 1997, then US President Bill Clinton and Russian President Boris Yeltsin agreed in principle that a follow-up to the Start 2 treaty should drop the numbers to 2,000 or 2,500. Mr Putin has suggested 1,500 warheads each would be adequate.

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See also:

22 Jul 01 | Europe
Bush gives ground on arms deal
29 Jun 01 | Europe
Russia 'open' to ABM changes
16 Jun 01 | Europe
Bush and Putin seek stronger ties
15 Jul 01 | Americas
Russia condemns US missile test
15 Jun 01 | Asia-Pacific
Shanghai summit backs ABM Treaty
14 Mar 01 | Asia-Pacific
China warns against US missile defence
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