Climate talks 'in trouble'

Demonstrators on Saturday demanded a deal

By BBC News Online's Environment correspondent Alex Kirby in Bonn

The final day of the climate talks has run into an eleventh-hour snag in its attempts to agree a compromise.

The conference president, Dutch Environment Minister Jan Pronk, said there was wide agreement with his proposals - but several key countries are still unhappy and a deal is far from certain.

The conference will reassemble later on Sunday evening to see if it is any closer to agreement.

Mr Pronk tabled his draft late on Saturday. But after hours of talks he said: "It remains difficult. I don't know if we will succeed."

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The European Union, one of the main negotiating blocs, has agreed to accept it reluctantly, for the sake of finalising the Kyoto Protocol, the global climate treaty.

Some members of the G77 group of developing countries are not happy with the Pronk plan's provisions for financing their adaptation to climate change, and attempts are continuing to win them over.

Protesters condemn the US president's stance on global warming

They are all oil exporters who fear for their livelihoods if the world starts to moderate its dependence on fossil fuels.

But the main problem concerns five members of the so-called Umbrella Group - Japan, Russia, Ukraine, Australia and Canada. One basic problem for several of them appears to be the question of making sure that countries do comply with the protocol, and setting penalties for any which do not.

The support of the last three countries is not essential to the survival of the protocol. But if Japan and Russia - two major polluters - do not support it, the chances of Kyoto being ratified by enough states to enter into force will be vanishingly slim.

'No amendments'

The European Union has been pushing hard for acceptance of the compromise. German Environment Minister Juergen Trittin warned that further concessions could "make the Bonn conference and the Kyoto Protocol a failure".

Mr Pronk made clear that the compromise plan was a take-it-or-leave-it proposal, and he says he will not take any amendments.

Pronk: Take it or leave it offer

The US, the world's largest producer of the greenhouse gases blamed for global warming, has already rejected the 1997 protocol.

Mr Pronk has said the talks might be extended into Monday in an effort to reach some kind of accord.

They are trying to thrash out the details for implementing the pollution-reduction commitments made at Kyoto - notably a 5.2% reduction in global emissions of six greenhouse gases by 2012, relative to 1990 levels.

Compromise plan

The latest paper includes generous allowances for the use of forests and farmland to reduce the amount by which countries have to cut emissions. In return they would have to give up the right to use investment in nuclear power as an alternative to cutting greenhouse gases.

The compromise plan would in fact cut greenhouse gases by less than half the amount set in the Kyoto Protocol, but many delegations think it better to accept a poor deal now than any of the worse ones they think will be available later.

The US is adamant that it will not ratify Kyoto

The EU's lead negotiator, Belgian Energy Minister Olivier Deleuze, said Europe had "big problems" with the compromise document. "But if it's a take it or leave it paper, in the spirit of flexibility and because we have talked enough about climate change over the last 10 years, Europe is ready to accept it."

Key issues of contention remain, including how strictly the protocol's requirements will be applied, and the extent to which the planting of pollution-absorbing trees - so-called carbon sinks - can be used to meet targets.

Carbon sinks

Policy regarding carbon sinks has divided Europe from members of the Umbrella Group.

The dispute was one reason for the failure of The Hague talks on the Kyoto Protocol last November.

Argentine Environment Minister Raul Estrada said that he expected any deal in Bonn to be "partial".

"Anything which is not sorted out here will be handed on to Marrakesh," he said, referring to the next round of Kyoto talks, due in Morocco in late October.