India's Naga truce confusion

By Ajoy Bose in Delhi

The Indian Government's startling decision to renege on a ceasefire agreement with Naga rebels in the north-east following violent protests in Manipur state could further undermine its hold on the troubled region.

The ceasefire led to violent protests

It is still unclear why the government originally chose to extend the territorial limits of the ceasefire with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), led by rebel leader Muivah, knowing full well that it would lead to a backlash in Manipur.

Considering the widespread fears in Manipur that a deal with Muivah could be the first step towards handing over part of the state to the Nagas, the government was asking for trouble by offering a blanket ceasefire to the rebels without getting a green light from the local leadership in the state.

Political disarray

To make matters worse, it chose to do so at a time when there was complete disarray amongst mainstream political parties in Manipur, where central rule had to be imposed in May after the collapse of the state government.

Nagas demonstrate in favour of the truce

Rattled at the scale and intensity of the protests in Manipur, the Delhi government is now in the process of backing out of its deal with the Nagas in the guise of a review of the ceasefire.

Already there is speculation that K Padmanabhaiah, the chief negotiator of the ceasefire who is a former home secretary and the government's adviser on the north-east, is to be replaced. This would be the second such change in two years.

The government's new pointman in the north-east is likely to be former Lok Sabha speaker P A Sangma, a political veteran and respected leader of the region.

However, despite his personal stature in the north-east, Sangma will be severely handicapped by the government's low credibility.

While the Manipuris are in no mood to be reasonable, the Nagas are far too upset with Delhi's betrayal to give any concessions. Interestingly, this is the second time within a year that the government has botched a ceasefire agreement with insurgent groups.

'Costly blunder'

The earlier instance was in Kashmir, where a similarly hasty bid to strike a deal with rebels without doing the proper political homework finally proved counterproductive.

The cost of such blunders may be even higher in the north-east than in Kashmir.

In recent years, the north-eastern region with its myriad ethnic rivalries and porous borders has been fast emerging as a far more ominous battleground than the more publicised insurgency in Kashmir.

The government's lack of cogent policy in the region as underlined by the fiasco over the Naga ceasefire has only compounded the problem.

Ajoy Bose is a journalist and commentator on Indian affairs