Musharraf's Kashmir strategy

A missile in Pakistani Kashmir aimed at the Indian side

By Susannah Price in Islamabad

Pakistani military ruler President Pervez Musharraf has made it clear he wants the summit with Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to focus on the dispute over Kashmir, which has led to two out of the three wars between India and Pakistan.

I think all will depend on the attitude of the Indian leadership

Former Pakistan army chief Mirza Aslam Beg

The Pakistani leader, who made himself president last month, has been holding wide-ranging consultations in the run-up to his trip.

However, he has also warned that expecting a solution at the first meeting would be premature.

The Pakistani Government wants the Kashmiris to vote in a plebiscite to decide if they want to belong to India or Pakistan - a move India has always opposed.

Any progress depends on how flexible the two sides can be.

'No scope for compromise'

Former army chief General Mirza Aslam Beg sees little room for compromise.

General Musharraf: Opposed by political parties

"The main issue is the right of self-determination for the people of Kashmir," he says.

"That is a moral issue and that places General Pervez Musharraf on a high moral pedestal to talk about Kashmir, and I think all will depend on the attitude of the Indian leadership."

General Musharraf was seen by India as being responsible for the conflict in Kargil in 1999, where militants crossed into Indian-administered Kashmir and occupied several mountain peaks.

The militant groups oppose the upcoming summit and say they will continue fighting.

But observers believe General Musharraf may be able to rein them in if there is an agreement.

'No mandate'

And ordinary people, tired of seeing huge amounts of money being spent on defence, appear to support the summit.

The two leaders ... have the ability to pull a rabbit out of the hat

Government spokesman General Qureshi

Pakistan's political parties - which oppose General Musharraf - are inevitably unenthusiastic.

While favouring talks with India, they say that as military leader, General Musharraf has no mandate to make agreements.

Some refused to join his consultations before the talks.

General Musharraf has said he is cautiously optimistic about his upcoming trip.

Progress 'possible'

The backing of the army is a crucial factor in his favour and his spokesman, General Qureshi, thinks a breakthrough is possible this time.

"People feel that these two leaders - Prime Minister Vajpayee and President General Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan - have the ability and the standing and the capability to, as someone said, pull the rabbit out of the hat."

But some have warned that if General Musharraf comes back empty-handed, the peace process could quickly grind to a halt.

Certainly, if he comes back with some result, it could gain Pakistan some much-needed international credit.

But most people here say they don't expect miracles, they just want to see some sign that India and Pakistan have at last begun talking to each other.