Vajpayee's grand gesture

The fighting in Kargil set back hopes for peace

By Jill McGivering in Delhi

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's decision to drop preconditions for talks with President Pervez Musharraf was hailed by his supporters as a bold move.

I think this summit at Agra will produce direct results.

Professor M L Sondhi

They describe Mr Vajpayee as a man of vision, determined to make progress with Pakistan and destined for a place in the history books.

Those that subscribe to this view believe that the summit will be a diplomatic triumph.

Professor M L Sondhi, who is close to the prime minister, says Mr Vajpayee is regarded by the public as a man of vision.

"People say we shouldn't have high expectations of this summit, I think that itself is a wrong notion, we should have very high expectations and these expectations will be fulfilled," he said.

'Betrayal'

Mr Vajpayee's historic arrival in Lahore in Pakistan two years ago was also a moment which was supposed to herald a new start in India-Pakistan relations.

Prime Minister Vajpayee: Decided on dramatic gesture

Unfortunately, the grand Lahore gesture turned sour when the Kargil conflict broke out between the two countries just months later in the summer of 1999.

Some analysts say Mr Vajpayee felt betrayed.

The fighting played into the hands of hardliners in his government who see Pakistan as the enemy and say they cannot be trusted at the negotiating table.

Many right-wingers are equally sceptical about the forthcoming talks in Agra.

'No compromise'

Sanjay Nirupam, who represents the Hindu nationalist Shiv Sena party in the Upper House, argues that whenever India fights Pakistan it wins, but whenever it engages in diplomacy it loses out.

"I don't think he is going to make any compromise but if he does, he will have to pay," he warns.

While Mr Vajpayee's supporters see him as a man of peace, some analysts are less flattering about his motives.

They believe he is focusing on Pakistan as a way of distracting people from his domestic problems.

Tarnished image

He is struggling to hold together a coalition, pushing in all directions - and his government's integrity has just been battered by a defence bribery scandal.

He was trying to revive his sagging political fortunes at home so he decided to do something dramatic.

Brahma Chellany of the Centre for Policy Research

Brahma Chellany, professor of security studies at the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi, certainly believes the invitation to Pakistan was driven largely by domestic factors.

"He was trying to revive his sagging political fortunes at home so he decided to do something dramatic in foreign policy," he argues.

If the summit does achieve a breakthrough, it could bolster Mr Vajpayee's popularity and stature.

But if his bold gesture towards India's biggest enemy is seen to fail, the political price could be devastating.